June data on trade of goods was mainly due to rising prices and higher turnover of trade goods that were not manufactured in Slovenia, as well as higher turnover (imports and exports) of energy products. June’s exports of goods (EUR 5.3 billion; more than EUR 1 billion above our estimate) were 57% higher y-o-y, while imports (EUR 4.8 billion) were 40% higher. Trade balance was positive in June. It amounted to EUR 0.5 billion, while a deficit was noted in all the previous five months of the year. This was due to higher exports of pharmaceutical products in Slovenia (part of them were stocked in Slovenia for some months), which influenced increased imports in the previous months. Exports of goods in the H1 were almost a third higher y-o-y (it amounted to EUR 25.5 billion), while imports increased by almost half (to EUR 27.7 billion). The deficit in goods trade in this period amounted to EUR 2.2 billion, and the export-import coverage was 92.0%.

Svetovni proizvodni PMI (JP Morgan in S&P Global) se je julija ponovno znižal, in sicer na 2-letno dno (51,1). Tako odraža stagnacijo industrijske proizvodnje na svetu (output indeks pri 50), predvsem pa negotovo izglede, saj se je obseg novih naročil ponovno znižal, dinamika nastajanja novih delovnih mest pa se je ustavila. Že tretjič v zadnjih štirih mesecih se je obseg proizvodnje v vmesni proizvodnji znižal, kar pretežno odraža težave v industrijah, ki pri svoji proizvodnji uporabljajo veliko energentov in surovin.

US GDP shrank by 0.9% on an annualized rate in Q2 (this is not comparable to the year-over-year change as we know it in Europe), while it was down 1.6% in Q1. The drop was the result of reduced inventories (mainly at general department stores and motor vehicle dealers), investment in housing construction, lower federal and state consumption (lower needs due to the end of pandemic). Lower stocks had an impact of as much as 2 p.p. on lower GDP (than it would otherwise be), and housing investments for 0.7 p.p. in addition. Analysts had expected growth of 0.4% of GDP. On the other hand, household consumption increased, as did exports, which are actually key components of quality economic growth.

Ameriški BDP se je v 2. četrtletju skrčil za 0,9 % na letni osnovi (to ni primerljivo z medletno spremembo, kot jo poznamo v Evropi), medtem ko je bil v 1. četrtletju nižji za 1,6 %. Padec je bil posledica znižanja zalog (predvsem pri splošnih trgovcih in pri trgovcih z motornimi vozili), investicij v stanovanjsko gradnjo, nižje potrošnje države za federalni ravni in ravni posameznih držav (manjše potrebe zaradi pandemije). Nižje zaloge so vplivale kar za 2 o. t. nižji BDP (kot bi sicer bil), stanovanjske investicije pa denimo 0,7 o. t. Analitiki so pričakovali rast v višini 0,4 % BDP. Na drugi strani se je potrošnja gospodinjstev povečala kot tudi izvoz, ki sta dejansko ključni komponenti kakovostne gospodarske rasti. Pi izvozu je izstopala večja rast izvoza industrijskega blaga in surovin (naftnih derivatov in plina), kot tudi hrane, krmil in pijač. Pri storitvah je izstopala rast izvoza potovanj, kar pomeni večjo potrošnjo tujih turistov v ZDA. Na strani uvoza je izstopala rast uvoza potovanj, kar pomeni večjo potrošnjo državljanov ZDA v tujini, kar je bilo posledica tako povečanja potovanj in letalskega prometa kot močnega dolarja, ki povečuje kupno moč Američanom. Znotraj potrošnje gospodinjstev so upadli nakupi blaga, povečalo pa se je trošenje storitev, še posebej v turizmu, zdravstvu in transportnih storitev. Poslovne investicije so ostale realno nespremenjene, kar odraža omahovanje zasebnega sektorja glede investicij. Posledično lahko zaključimo, da je bil padec BDP statistične narave ter so ZDA res vstopile v recesijo (dva zaporedna znižanja BDP), vendar je ta izključno tehnične narave, saj se je zaposlenost še povečala in so kakovostne komponente BDP porasle. V 3. četrtletju lahko v ZDA pričakujemo okoli 2-odstotno rast, že na podlagi aktualnih podatkov za mesec julij. Ameriško gospodarstvo je bilo v 2. četrtletju realno za 2,5 % večje kot v četrtletju pred izbruhom pandemije (4. četrtletje 2019).

The economic climate index worsened as expected in July (it fell by 1.7 index point to -1.1) and is now slightly below the long-term average, which reflects the slowdown of economic dynamics, and above all negative expectations of consumers and partly of manufacturing sector regarding business conditions in the coming months. The common denominator of these challenges is the high prices of energy products and raw materials, which reduce the disposable income of households. In manufacturing, the added concern is greater due to the danger of reductions in natural gas flows.

Gospodarska klima v Sloveniji se je v mesecu juliju pričakovano poslabšala (znižala se je za 1,7 o. t. na -1,1) in je zdaj nekoliko pod dolgoletnim povprečjem, kar odraža upočasnjeno gospodarsko dinamiko, predvsem pa izrazito negativna pričakovanja potrošnikov in delno predelovalnih dejavnostih glede pogojev poslovanja v prihodnjih mesecih. Skupni imenovalec teh izzivov so visoke cene energentov in surovin, ki zmanjšujejo razpoložljiv dohodek gospodinjstev, v industriji pa je skrb večja zaradi nevarnosti redukcij zemeljskega plina.

Slovenia’s industrial production increased by 0.8% in May (as in the euro area), which was more than our estimate (+0.2%) and faster than in April (+0.4%). Although this data is less reliable, it nevertheless shows that solid data (data showing revenues, production) in the first half of the year has not deteriorated significantly. Production in manufacturing increased by only 0.2%. Sector of electricity, gas and steam supply contributed the most to the monthly growth, as it increased production by 5.1%. In mining, production fell by 7.7%, which mainly reflects volatile changes in the amount of mined lignite at Premogovnik Velenje. On a yearly basis, industrial production in the first five months was higher by 3.5%, of which in mining by 23% and in manufacturing by 5.1%. In the supply of electricity, gas and steam, it was lower by one-sixth, which reflects poor hydrology and thus low level of electricity production in hydro power plants.

Industrijska proizvodnja v Sloveniji se je v mesecu maju povečala za 0,8 % (prav toliko tudi v območju evra), kar je bilo več od naše ocene (+0,2 %) in več kot v mesecu aprilu (+0,4 %). Ti podatki so sicer začasne narave, kar pomeni, da so manj zanesljivi, vseeno pa kažejo, da se trdni podatki (podatki, ki kažejo prihodke, proizvodnjo) v gospodarstvu v 1. polletju v Sloveniji niso pomembno poslabšali. Industrijska proizvodnja v predelovalnih dejavnostih se je zvišala le za 0,2 %. K mesečni rasti je tako najbolj prispevala dejavnost oskrbe z električno energijo, plinom in paro, ki je porasla za 5,1 %. V rudarstvu se je znižala na 7,7 %, kar pretežno odraža spremembe v količini izkopanega lignita v Premogovniku Velenje.

J.P. Morgan Global Composite rose as expected in June (from 51.3 in May to 53.5), largely driven by an increase in manufacturing in China as the bulk of containment measures were lifted in Shanghai. PMI ex. China dropped from 53.9 to 53.1. World production thus increased in June after the decline in April and May. Growth in the service sector was the highest in the last four months. Growth was faster in business services and consumer goods manufacturing, while it moderated in consumer services. In Brazil, India and China, the value of the indicator was the highest (among the 14 large world economies), while its value strengthened the most in Japan, the United Kingdom and Brazil. The Chinese and Russian economies are recovering, while growth has slowed in all other economies. New orders rose for the slowest time since July 2020, while new export orders contracted for the fourth consecutive month. Source: S&P Global