Weekly Economic Highlights: Pandemic having less impact on services

Weekly Economic Highlights: Pandemic having less impact on services

As expected, exports of goods fell from EUR 3.5 billion (July figure) to EUR 2.8 billion in August, which is mainly due to the seasonal effect (manufacturing company usually have collective holidays in August). Compared to August 2020, exports were a quarter higher.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Optimism remained high in services and construction

Weekly Economic Highlights: Optimism remained high in services and construction

In September 2021, the economic sentiment/climate was 1.8 percentage points lower on a monthly basis (our estimate: -0.9%), while it was still 8.5 percentage points higher on an annual basis. Its change was negatively affected by confidence indicators in manufacturing (by 1.3 percentage points), in retail trade (by 0.7 percentage points) and among consumers (by 0.2 percentage points). The effects of confidence indicators in services and construction were positive (each contributing 0.2 percentage points).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Economic growth in Slovenia in 2021 probably above 6%

Weekly Economic Highlights: Economic growth in Slovenia in 2021 probably above 6%

As expected, in the autumn forecast, IMAD (Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development) significantly improved its estimate for Slovenia’s real GDP growth in 2021, from 4.6% to 6.1%, which is one of the historically largest positive adjustments in terms of growth prospects.

Weekly Economic Highlights: In five industrial sectors, the growth of industrial production was above 25% y-o-y

Weekly Economic Highlights: In five industrial sectors, the growth of industrial production was above 25% y-o-y

Compared to the previous month, July’s growth of industrial production was negative (-1.7% vs our estimate: -1.0%), while year-on-year (compared to July 2020) it was 8.9% higher. As expected, growth slowed down (it was 15% higher year on year in the 1H 2021) to 13% in the seven months of 2021. In mining, industrial production was down 2.6% year on year in the same period, in energy by 1.5%, but in manufacturing it was higher by about 15%.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Improving exports of goods in final months of 2020 but a reduction of 10% on a yearly level likely

Weekly Economic Highlights: Improving exports of goods in final months of 2020 but a reduction of 10% on a yearly level likely

November data on exports (1 week ahead of Eurostat release) from Slovenian Statistical Office shows that trends have improved in final months, what was expected based on improving sentiment in manufacturing as well as anecdotal data from main companies. Y-o-y change (Nov. 20/Nov. 19) was positive (+0.9%; +EUR 30 m), for both group of markets (exports to EU: +EUR 20 m and exports to non-EU: +EUR 10 m).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Heterogenous trends in key global manufacturing hubs

Weekly Economic Highlights: Heterogenous trends in key global manufacturing hubs

The global production index JP Morgan Global Manufacturing showed that the sentiment in global manufacturing at the end of July (55.4) was quite similar to that in June (55.5), or that the rise in infections in some major countries did not contribute to deteriorating expectations of future or current operations. All three main types of manufacturing recorded growth, the slowest the category of consumer goods products, where growth accelerated. The highest sentiment in manufacturing was in the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, USA, while on the other hand, China (50.3) and Japan (53) were well below the average. Asia’s emerging markets were particularly weak, with activity in Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Myanmar even declining.

Weekly Economic Highlights: In the Q2 21, GDP growth in the EU-27 exceeded expectations, in the US below

Weekly Economic Highlights: In the Q2 21, GDP growth in the EU-27 exceeded expectations, in the US below

GDP in the EU-27 increased by 1.9% in the Q2 21 compared to the Q1 21 (in the EA-19 by 2%, Reuters Consensus: +1.5%), which was more than we expected (1.4%). Among the 11 countries for which data are already available, the highest growth was recorded in Portugal (+ 4.9%, where, by the way, the fall in GDP was high in the Q1 21, at -3.2%) and in Austria (+4.3%). Growth was also high in Latvia (+3.7%) and Spain (+ 2.8%). GDP in Europe's largest economy - Germany, strengthened by 1.5% (after a 1.8% drop in the 1st quarter of 2021), growth in France was disappointing (0.9% after unchanged growth in the Q1 2021).

Weekly Economic Highlights: The slowing down of vaccination dynamics around the world poses a challenge due to a possible new global wave of infection

According to the latest data from the New York Times, 3.69 billion doses of vaccines have already been used in the world (48 per 100 people). For most vaccines, two doses are required for immunity. At the top of the scale are Malta (71% of the population vaccinated with two doses) and Iceland (70%). Among the world's major economies, the United Kingdom (54%), China (53%), Spain (51%), Canada (51%) and the United States (49%) are also at the top. In Slovenia, the share of people already received 2 jabs currently stands at 37%, which is close to France, the Czech Republic and Sweden.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Continuous upgrades in economic growth estimates is accompanied by the first signals of the 4th wave

Weekly Economic Highlights: Continuous upgrades in economic growth estimates is accompanied by the first signals of the 4th wave

The European Commission (EC) published its summer forecast on Wednesday, 7 July, raising the estimate for GDP growth in the euro area for 2021 from 4.3% to 4.8% (for 2022 from 4.4% to 4.5%) as well as for inflation (from 1.7% to 1.9% in 2021 and from 1.3% to 1.4% in 2022).

Weekly Economic Highlights: The beginning of the Calendar Summer in the Western Hemisphere Raises the Heat in the Economy

Weekly Economic Highlights: The beginning of the Calendar Summer in the Western Hemisphere Raises the Heat in the Economy

In May 2021, 41% more building permits were issued than in the same month last year, when administrative units performed only urgent matters. Compared to May 2019 (before the pandemic), 4% more were issued in May 2021, of which 17% more for residential buildings and 5% less for non-residential buildings.