Weekly Economic Highlights: Larger-than-expected drop in economic sentiment index (ESI)

Weekly Economic Highlights: Larger-than-expected drop in economic sentiment index (ESI)

The economic sentiment index (ESI) dropped by 4.5 p.p. m-o-m in September, which was a bigger drop than expected (our estimate: -0.7 p.p.) and thus fell below the long-term average. Decrease of indicator was influenced by all five components: the most by drop in manufacturing confidence (2.5 p.p. contribution to the decrease), followed by services (-1.3 p.p.). Retail trade sentiment had a slightly smaller impact (-0.3 p.p.), as well as consumer sentiment (-0.3 p.p.) and sentiment in construction (-0.2 p.p.). Excluding the pandemic period, the last time the indicator was this low was in April 14. Confidence in manufacturing fell by 7 p.p. m-o-m, in retail trade by 6 p.p., and in services by 5 p.p. In the construction, it fell by 3 p.p. and the consumer confidence decreased by 1 p.p. In services (15), retail trade (15) and construction (13), the indicator remained above the long-term average value, while the consumer confidence indicator (-40) was well below it and the lowest since June 12. In manufacturing (-8), the indicator slipped considerably below the long-term average in recent month.

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 17. do 23. septembra 2022

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 17. do 23. septembra 2022

Gospodarska klima v Sloveniji je bila septembra za 4,5 o. t. nižja kot v prejšnjem mesecu, kar je bil večji padec od pričakovanega (naša ocena: -0,7 o. t.) in je tako padla pod dolgoletno povprečje. Na znižanje vrednosti kazalnika je vplivalo vseh pet komponent: najbolj kazalnik zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih (prispevek k znižanju v višini 2,5 o. t.), sledile so storitvene dejavnosti (za 1,3 o. t.), nekoliko manjši vpliv pa je bil v trgovini na drobno (za 0,3 o. t.), med potrošniki (za 0,3 o. t.) in v gradbeništvu (za 0,2 o. t.). Izvzemši obdobje pandemije, je bil kazalnik nazadnje tako nizko aprila 2014. Vir: Statistični urad RS

Spletna anketa Gospodarska pričakovanja 2023 – vabljeni k sodelovanju

Spletna anketa Gospodarska pričakovanja 2023 – vabljeni k sodelovanju

Višje cene energentov, še posebej zemeljskega plina in električne energije ob dvigu obrestnih mer pomembno vplivajo na aktualne ocene poslovanja v prihodnjem letu. Zato vas naprošamo, da z nami delite smer sprememb pri nekaterih ključnih poslovnih kategorijah v letu 2023. Vabljeni k sodelovanju v anketi, ki vam bo vzela 2-3 minute časa. S sodelovanjem lahko pridobite tudi poročilo o pričakovanjih z drugih evropskih trgov.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Growing trade deficit reflects the decline in the competitiveness of European production

Weekly Economic Highlights: Growing trade deficit reflects the decline in the competitiveness of European production

In July, EU-27 recorded a EUR 42 bn deficit in goods trade with third countries (in June: EUR 34 bn and in July of the previous year EUR 16 bn surplus), which was mainly due to lower export and higher import growth, as a consequence of higher price growth of energy products (especially fossil fuels). Exports to markets outside the EU amounted to EUR 212 bn (EUR 225 bn in June), which was only 13% more than in July last year (June’ annual growth was 20%). Imports of goods, on the other hand, were still higher by half (increase from EUR 172 to EUR 254 bn). The value of trade within EU-27 amounted to EUR 342 bn, which was 22% more y-o-y. This data shows that the growth of imports remained high in nominal terms (mainly due to the rise in prices, with a more moderate increase in imported quantities), while the growth of exports began to slow down. Source: Eurostat

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 10. do 16. septembra 2022

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 10. do 16. septembra 2022

V mesecu juliju je EU-27 s tretjimi državami beležila 42 mrd EUR primanjkljaja pri trgovanju z blagom (v juniju: 34 mrd EUR in v juliju predhodnega leta 16 mrd EUR presežka), kar je bilo predvsem posledica nižje rasti izvoza in višje rasti uvoza, pretežno zaradi višje rasti cen energentov (fosilnih goriv). Izvoz na trge izven EU je znašal 212 mrd EUR (v juniju 225 mrd EUR), kar je bilo le še za 13 % več kot julija lani (junijska medletna rast je bila pri 20 %). Uvoz blaga je bil na drugi strani še vedno višji za polovico (povečanje s 172 na 254 mrd EUR). Vrednost blagovne menjave med državami EU je znašala 342 mrd EUR, kar je bilo za 22 % več kot v enakem mesecu lani. Navedeni podatki kažejo, da se je rast uvoza pretežno ohranila (predvsem zaradi rasti cen, ob zmernejši rasti uvoženih količin), medtem ko se je rast izvoza pričela umirjati. Vir: Eurostat

Weekly Economic Highlights: Leading indicators in global economy in search of a bottom

Weekly Economic Highlights: Leading indicators in global economy in search of a bottom

Global composite PMI fell below 50 in August (to 49.3; 50.8 in July), suggesting a slight contraction in the global economy, for the first time since June 2020. Volume of new orders contracted, world trade decreased, and the amount of excess capacity increased, which should at least alleviate price pressures. Five out of six sectors of the private economy registered declines (business services, consumer goods, consumer services, intermediate production and production of capital goods). Only the financial sector recorded slight growth. Declines were mainly present in developed economies (USA, Japan, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom), namely in both manufacturing and services. Economic activity picked up in India, Brazil and China. In world's 14 largest economies, employment increased, with the exceptions being China and Russia, where it declined. Services indicator fell to 49.2 in August, with services growing in China, the United Kingdom, India, Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Australia, Kazakhstan, and Ireland. In USA, Japan, Germany and Russia, the volume of services provided decreased. Source: JP Morgan, S&P Global

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, 27. avgusta do 9. septembra 2022

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, 27. avgusta do 9. septembra 2022

Sektorski podatki o poslovanju v Evropi v avgustu kažejo, da se je tekoča proizvodnja/aktivnost najbolj znižala v gozdarstvu in proizvodnji papirja, kemični industriji, avtomobilski verigi, proizvodnji kovin in rud, gradbenega materiala, gradbeništvu in inženiringu, poslovanju z nepremičninami, transportu kot tudi v proizvodnji izdelkov za gospodinjstva. Rast je beležilo le pet dejavnosti: programska oprema in IT storitve, finančne dejavnosti brez bank, tehnološka oprema, farmacija in zdravstvene storitve. Precej podobni so bili podatki o novih naročilih, ki nakazujejo na dinamiko v prihodnjih mesecih. Najbolj so se znižali v gozdarstvu in proizvodnji papirja, proizvodnji gradbenega materiala, kemični industriji ter proizvodnji kovin in rud. Le v treh sektorjih so se nova naročila nekoliko povečala. Kljub temu se je zaposlovanje v povprečju še povečalo, najbolj v proizvodnji tehnološke opreme. Vir: S&P Global

Weekly Economic Highlights: Contraction in EA-19 manufacturing most pronounced in Germany

Weekly Economic Highlights: Contraction in EA-19 manufacturing most pronounced in Germany

Manufacturing PMI remained flat at 49.7, while the current output index fell from 46.5 to 46.3, which is expected to reflect a fall in industrial production in August, following a decline already in July. Price pressures in manufacturing are easing, which is not surprising given the drop in commodity prices. Among the larger economies in the euro zone, industrial production fell mainly in Germany and France, while it probably increased in other economies. Output fell mainly in the basic materials sectors and the automotive sector, where semiconductor shortages continue to limit production growth (but less sales as manufacturers focus on premium electric vehicles). Nevertheless, it is clear that the higher prices of electricity, natural gas and the shortage of semiconductors lead to greater imports of products from non-European countries, where the prices of energy products are lower, and the availability of semiconductors is better (Korean vehicle manufacturers).

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 13. do 26. avgusta 2022

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 13. do 26. avgusta 2022

Sestavljeni PMI v območju evra se je v avgustu po prvi oceni nekoliko znižal (s 49,9 na 49,2), vendar je bilo to manj od naše ocene (48,5) in srednje ocene neodvisnih analitikov (48,2). Pri tem se je predvsem znižalo zaupanje v storitvah (padec s 51,2 na 50,2), kar še vedno pomeni šibko rast in naj bi bilo posledica draginje, ki zmanjšuje realno povpraševanje po blagu in storitvah. V predelovalnih dejavnostih je PMI ostal na podobni ravni (49,7), medtem ko se je indeks tekoče proizvodnje znižal s 46,5 na 46,3, kar naj bi odražalo avgustovski padec industrijske proizvodnje, ki naj bi sledil julijskem padcu. Cenovni pritiski v proizvodnji se umirjajo, kar ni presenečenje glede na padec cen surovin. Med večjimi gospodarstvi v območju evra, so se s padci v industrijski proizvodnji soočili predvsem v Nemčiji in Franciji, medtem ko se je v drugih gospodarstvih ta verjetno še povečala.

Weekly Economic Highlights: June data suggest good performance of Slovenian economy in H1

Industrial production increased by 1.7% m-o-m in June, according to original data (+3.1% y-o-y), which was mainly due to the growth of in manufacturing (+2% m-o-m; +6% y-o-y). As it is usual for industrial production to increase in June compared to May, changes based on seasonally adjusted data were different. Thus, IP fell by 0.2% m-o-m, of which by 0.6% in manufacturing activities (92% of total IP). For the second consecutive month, drop was high in mining (7% in May as well as in June).