Gospodarska klima v Sloveniji se je po štirih zaporednih mesecih rasti v marcu 2022 znižala za 5,2 odstotne točke, kar je bilo skladno z našimi pričakovanji (-5,6). Na letni ravni je ostala višja, in sicer za 2 odstotni točki. Negativno so na mesečno spremembo vplivale nižje vrednosti kazalnikov zaupanja med potrošniki (za 2,5 odstotne točke) in v predelovalnih dejavnostih (za 2,3 odstotne točke). Vpliv nižjega zaupanja v storitvenih dejavnostih je bil blažji (za 0,5 odstotne točke), medtem ko je bil vpliv kazalnika zaupanja v trgovini na drobno pozitiven (za 0,1 odstotne točke). Kazalnik zaupanja v gradbeništvu na spremembo ni imel vpliva.

The composite PMI index in the euro area decreased slightly in March (the survey was conducted between 11 and 22 March) (from 55.4 to 54.5), with a decline in the service indicator (decreases from 55.5 to 54.8) lower than in manufacturing (down from 58.2 to 57). The composite indicator fell slightly from the February highest value in the last five years, which was the result of the withdrawal of containment measures across Europe. However, index value was the second highest since November 2021 and well above the long-term average. Service sectors saw growth in demand due to higher consumption of their services, and the war in Ukraine and sanctions weakened the outlook for demand for goods.

The OECD estimates that global economic growth is expected to be reduced by 1 percentage point in 2022 due to uncertainties related to the war in Ukraine, while average inflation is expected to be an additional 2.5 percentage points higher, mainly as a result of rising energy and raw materials prices and a strong dollar. In the euro area, economic growth is expected to be 1.4 percentage points lower and inflation 2 percentage points higher. The direct economic importance of Russia and Ukraine is small in the global economy (2% of world GDP), and financial ties with other countries are small, which means limited risk. FDI of foreign companies in Russia and Russian companies abroad represent only 1 to 1.5% of global FDI.

OECD je ocenil, da naj bi bila svetovna gospodarska rast zaradi negotovosti, povezane z vojno v Ukrajini, v letu 2022 nižja za 1 odstotno točko, medtem ko naj bi bila povprečna inflacija višja za dodatni 2,5 odstotni točki, predvsem kot posledica dviga cen energentov, surovin in močnega dolarja. V območju evra naj bi tako bila gospodarska rast nižja za 1,4 odstotne točke in inflacija višja za 2 odstotka. Neposreden ekonomski pomen Rusije in Ukrajine je sicer v globalnem gospodarstvu majhen (2 % svetovnega BDP), prav tako so finančne povezave z drugimi državami majhne, kar pomeni omejeno tveganje. Več v prilogi.

Indeks nabavnih managerjev v svetovni elektronski industriji se je februarja znižal (s 56,3 na 54,8) na najnižjo vrednost v zadnjih 15 mesecih. Upočasnila se je tekoča rast proizvodnje in novih naročil. Indeks se je znižal zaradi nekoliko šibkejšega povpraševanja, pomanjkanja surovin in odsotnosti zaposlenih (v Aziji je bilo to bolj izrazito). Podobno kot v drugih sektorjih se zamude pri dobavah nekoliko znižujejo. Stroškovni pritiski ostajajo visoki, saj so se cene surovin na mednarodnih trgih povečale, hkrati pa so narasli stroški transporta. Februarja je tako okoli 28 % svetovnih proizvajalcev dvignilo cene (le 1 % jih je znižalo), kar je bilo sicer nekoliko manj kot januarja.

In January, industrial production remained almost unchanged to December (seasonally adjusted) and was higher only by 0.1%. Quite surprising, growth was highest in electricity, gas and steam supply (+18%). It decreased by 0.9% in manufacturing (a modest growth of 0.5% was expected according to our view) and in mining and quarrying by 0.6%. Most of the industrial production in Slovenia is represented by manufacturing (90 %), where revenues nevertheless increased by 3.1% (despite drop in industrial production). The decline in production in manufacturing was largely influenced by the decline in production in durable consumer goods (-14.7%), where we estimate that it due to falling production of pharmaceuticals. In production of investment goods (machinery and equipment, semi-finished products), production grew by 0.9% but revenues fell by 5.3%. This was also due to slightly higher inventory growth (+3%).

BDP v Sloveniji se je v zadnjem četrtletju leta 2021 povečal za 5,4 % (desezonirano, glede na predhodno četrtletje), kar je bilo 10-krat več kot v EU-27 (0,4 %) ali v območju evra (0,3 %). Glede na 4. četrtletje 2020 je bil BDP v Sloveniji večji za desetino, kar je bila visoka rast (le v 2. četrtletju je bila višja, pri 16,1 %). V celotnem letu 2021 je bila rast 8,1-odstotna, kar je bilo več od zadnjega konsenza (6,7 %). Potrošnja gospodinjstev je porasla za 11,6 %, države za 3,9 % in bruto investicij v osnovna sredstva za 12,3 % (tudi zaloge so pozitivno prispevale k rasti, v višini 0,8 odstotne točke). Izvoz blaga in storitev je bil realno višji za 13,2 %, uvoz pa za 17,4 % (odražal je tako večji uvoz polproizvodov za predelovalno dejavnosti, ki 80 % le-te izvozi, kot večjo potrošnjo gospodinjstev, države in investicij). K celotni rasti BDP je tako predvsem prispevala višja potrošnja gospodinjstev (70 % rasti). Ta je bila realno višja za 4,3 % glede na leto 2019.

The economic climate in Slovenia improved as expected in February 2022, mainly due to the predominant removal of restrictions that negatively affected some service activities (tourism, travel, sports, culture). It was 1.2 percentage points higher on a monthly basis (we expected an increase of 0.3 percentage points) and 10.1 percentage points higher on an annual basis. The monthly change in the sentiment indicator was positively influenced by higher values of consumer confidence indicators (by 0.6 percentage points), in services (by 0.5 percentage points) and in manufacturing (by 0.2 percentage points). The impact of confidence indicators in retail trade and construction was negative, but the impact was small (0.1 percentage point each).

Gospodarska klima v Sloveniji se je v februarju 2022 pričakovano izboljšala, predvsem zaradi pretežnega umika omejitev s storitvenih dejavnostih. Na mesečni ravni je bila višja za 1,2 odstotne točke (pričakovali smo dvig za 0,3 točke) in na letni ravni za 10,1 odstotne točke. Pozitivno so na mesečno spremembo vrednosti kazalnika gospodarske klime vplivale višje vrednosti kazalnikov zaupanja med potrošniki (za 0,6 odstotne točke), v storitvenih dejavnostih (za 0,5 odstotne točke) in v predelovalnih dejavnostih (za 0,2 odstotne točke). Vpliv kazalnikov zaupanja v trgovini na drobno in v gradbeništvu je bil negativen, vendar je bil vpliv majhen (vsak za 0,1 odstotne točke).

Consumer confidence indicator was 3 percentage points higher on a monthly basis in February 2022, which was quite in line with our expectations (growth of 2 points). The rise in the confidence indicator was due to more optimistic consumer expectations regarding the economic situation in the country (by 8 percentage points) and the financial situation in households (by 7 percentage points). In our opinion, this is due to expectations of the withdrawal of the remaining containment measures as well as expectations of continuing wage growth.