The government extended the official pandemic for 2 more months, effective from January 17th, 2021. We believe the extension of support measures to be a positive sign. The scheme for covering fixed costs has been extended till the end of March (1st quarter 2021) and it is very likely (not official yet) that the scheme for supporting the job market (temporary lay-offs) will be extended until April 2021.

November data on exports (1 week ahead of Eurostat release) from Slovenian Statistical Office shows that trends have improved in final months, what was expected based on improving sentiment in manufacturing as well as anecdotal data from main companies. Y-o-y change (Nov. 20/Nov. 19) was positive (+0.9%; +EUR 30 m), for both group of markets (exports to EU: +EUR 20 m and exports to non-EU: +EUR 10 m). One must be careful by interpreting the headline figure for 11 months (-2.7% y-o-y) as the change severely underestimates the reduction of exports which is due to one-off increase in distribution of drugs of one bigger pharmaceutical group with operations in Slovenia and the region.