The European Commission (EC) published its summer forecast on Wednesday, 7 July, raising the estimate for GDP growth in the euro area for 2021 from 4.3% to 4.8% (for 2022 from 4.4% to 4.5%) as well as for inflation (from 1.7% to 1.9% in 2021 and from 1.3% to 1.4% in 2022).

Evropska komisija (EK) je v sredo, 7. julija, objavila svojo poletno napoved, kjer je zvišala oceno za rast BDP v območju evra za leto 2021 s 4,3 % na 4,8 % (za leto 2022 s 4,4 % na 4,5 %) ter za inflacijo (z 1,7 % na 1,9 % v 2021 in z 1,3 % na 1,4 % za leto 2022). Pri Sloveniji je bil pozitiven popravek rasti med večjimi. Namesto prej predvidenih 4,9-odstotne rasti v 2021 naj bi ta bila celo 5,7-odstotna, za leto 2022 pa se je napoved rahlo znižala (s 5,1 na 5 %). Konsenz neodvisnih institucij je pri 4,7-odstotni rasti BDP v 2021 in 4,4-odstotni v letu 2022, kar dejansko pomeni, da je optimistični pogled oddelka ECFIN na EK med najvišjimi.

Vrednost v aprilu 2021 opravljenih gradbenih del je bila na letni ravni za 6,5 % višja, kar je precej manj od naše ocene (12 %). Tokrat so bile višje vrednosti vseh vrst del, razen na nestanovanjskih stavbah. Skupna vrednost teh del na stavbah je bila višja za 5,7 %, pri čemer je bila vrednost opravljenih gradbenih del na stanovanjskih stavbah za 44,7 % višja, na nestanovanjskih stavbah pa za 11,1 % nižja. Vrednost opravljenih gradbenih del na gradbenih inženirskih objektih je bila višja za 1,3 %, vrednost opravljenih specializiranih gradbenih del pa je bila višja za 10,5 %.

In May 2021, 41% more building permits were issued than in the same month last year, when administrative units performed only urgent matters. Compared to May 2019 (before the pandemic), 4% more were issued in May 2021, of which 17% more for residential buildings and 5% less for non-residential buildings.

Data on sales by individual manufacturing sectors in the first four months show (pharmacy data are confidential) that revenues were higher compared to the same period in 2019 in the manufacture of other vehicles and vessels (+ 16%), the manufacture of electrical appliances (+ 12%), computers, electronic and optical products (+9%), rubber and plastic products (+9%), manufacture of other machinery and equipment (+8%), wood working and processing (+ 7%), manufacture of fabricated metal products 6%), production of chemicals (+5%), production of furniture (+5%) and in four other activities. Sales were lower in nine sectors.

Podatki o industrijski proizvodnji v mesecu aprilu 2021 so bili nad našimi pričakovanji. Aprila je bila industrijska proizvodnja (rudarstvo, predelovalne dejavnosti in oskrba z energenti) medletno višja za 36 % (naša pričakovanja: +24 %), v prvih štirih mesecih kar za 11 %, k čemer je ugodno prispevala tudi revizija (popravek podatkov navzgor za predhodne mesece). V tem obdobju je bila v rudarstvu nižja za 5,6 % (manjši izkop premoga v Premogovniku Velenje), v energetiki nižja za 1 %, v predelovalnih dejavnosti pa višja za 12 %. Naša ocena za celo leto je 5-odstotna rast industrijske proizvodnje v predelovalnih dejavnostih, medtem ko je konsenz neodvisnih analitikov 7 % (maj 2021, Consensus Economics), v naslednjem letu pa 4,7 % (naša ocena: +3 %).

Gross domestic product (GDP) in Slovenia increased by 1.6% in real terms in the first quarter of 2021 (adjusted for the season and the calendar by 2.3%), which is comparatively the highest growth among EU member states that have already published data on the Eurostat portal. Ex-ante we estimated that the decline would be smaller than the EU-27 average, somewhere around 1%, and we were among the most optimistic.

On Friday, 21 May, Ajpes already revealed long-awaited data on the financial performance of companies and sole proprietors in 2020. Aggregate revenues of companies fell by 5.7% (of those, exports by 7 %), and that of sole proprietors by 5%, while value added dropped by about 1 %. Lower raw material prices in 2020 and state support measures (subsidies received) were key to ensuring that value added did not shrink.

The number of registered unemployed is still declining (77.1 thousand on 11 May, 2,200 less than at the end of April), which coincides with the relaxation of restrictive measures in the hospitality industry (restaurants, hotels), growth in manufacturing and construction. During the last week of April, the traffic of lorries on Slovenian motorways was 29% higher than in the same period of 2019 (45% for domestic vehicles and 21% for foreign vehicles), when the volume of transport was lower also due to Labour Day holidays with one working day less.