Global composite PMI fell below 50 in August (to 49.3; 50.8 in July), suggesting a slight contraction in the global economy, for the first time since June 2020. Volume of new orders contracted, world trade decreased, and the amount of excess capacity increased, which should at least alleviate price pressures. Five out of six sectors of the private economy registered declines (business services, consumer goods, consumer services, intermediate production and production of capital goods). Only the financial sector recorded slight growth. Declines were mainly present in developed economies (USA, Japan, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom), namely in both manufacturing and services. Economic activity picked up in India, Brazil and China. In world's 14 largest economies, employment increased, with the exceptions being China and Russia, where it declined. Services indicator fell to 49.2 in August, with services growing in China, the United Kingdom, India, Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Australia, Kazakhstan, and Ireland. In USA, Japan, Germany and Russia, the volume of services provided decreased. Source: JP Morgan, S&P Global
Sektorski podatki o poslovanju v Evropi v avgustu kažejo, da se je tekoča proizvodnja/aktivnost najbolj znižala v gozdarstvu in proizvodnji papirja, kemični industriji, avtomobilski verigi, proizvodnji kovin in rud, gradbenega materiala, gradbeništvu in inženiringu, poslovanju z nepremičninami, transportu kot tudi v proizvodnji izdelkov za gospodinjstva. Rast je beležilo le pet dejavnosti: programska oprema in IT storitve, finančne dejavnosti brez bank, tehnološka oprema, farmacija in zdravstvene storitve. Precej podobni so bili podatki o novih naročilih, ki nakazujejo na dinamiko v prihodnjih mesecih. Najbolj so se znižali v gozdarstvu in proizvodnji papirja, proizvodnji gradbenega materiala, kemični industriji ter proizvodnji kovin in rud. Le v treh sektorjih so se nova naročila nekoliko povečala. Kljub temu se je zaposlovanje v povprečju še povečalo, najbolj v proizvodnji tehnološke opreme. Vir: S&P Global
Manufacturing PMI remained flat at 49.7, while the current output index fell from 46.5 to 46.3, which is expected to reflect a fall in industrial production in August, following a decline already in July. Price pressures in manufacturing are easing, which is not surprising given the drop in commodity prices. Among the larger economies in the euro zone, industrial production fell mainly in Germany and France, while it probably increased in other economies. Output fell mainly in the basic materials sectors and the automotive sector, where semiconductor shortages continue to limit production growth (but less sales as manufacturers focus on premium electric vehicles). Nevertheless, it is clear that the higher prices of electricity, natural gas and the shortage of semiconductors lead to greater imports of products from non-European countries, where the prices of energy products are lower, and the availability of semiconductors is better (Korean vehicle manufacturers).
Sestavljeni PMI v območju evra se je v avgustu po prvi oceni nekoliko znižal (s 49,9 na 49,2), vendar je bilo to manj od naše ocene (48,5) in srednje ocene neodvisnih analitikov (48,2). Pri tem se je predvsem znižalo zaupanje v storitvah (padec s 51,2 na 50,2), kar še vedno pomeni šibko rast in naj bi bilo posledica draginje, ki zmanjšuje realno povpraševanje po blagu in storitvah. V predelovalnih dejavnostih je PMI ostal na podobni ravni (49,7), medtem ko se je indeks tekoče proizvodnje znižal s 46,5 na 46,3, kar naj bi odražalo avgustovski padec industrijske proizvodnje, ki naj bi sledil julijskem padcu. Cenovni pritiski v proizvodnji se umirjajo, kar ni presenečenje glede na padec cen surovin. Med večjimi gospodarstvi v območju evra, so se s padci v industrijski proizvodnji soočili predvsem v Nemčiji in Franciji, medtem ko se je v drugih gospodarstvih ta verjetno še povečala.
Industrial production increased by 1.7% m-o-m in June, according to original data (+3.1% y-o-y), which was mainly due to the growth of in manufacturing (+2% m-o-m; +6% y-o-y). As it is usual for industrial production to increase in June compared to May, changes based on seasonally adjusted data were different. Thus, IP fell by 0.2% m-o-m, of which by 0.6% in manufacturing activities (92% of total IP). For the second consecutive month, drop was high in mining (7% in May as well as in June).
V juniju se je industrijska proizvodnja v Sloveniji po originalnih podatkih v enem mesecu povečala za 1,7 % (3,1 % medletno), kar je bilo predvsem posledica rasti proizvodnje v predelovalnih dejavnostih (+2 % glede na maj; +6 % glede na junij 21). Ker je junija običajno, da industrijska proizvodnja poraste glede na maj, so bili gibanja na podlagi desezoniranih podatkov drugačna. Tako je na mesečni ravni upadla za 0,2 %, od tega v predelovalnih dejavnostih za 0,6 %. Že drug zaporedni mesec je bil padec visok v rudarstvu (7 % v maju in prav toliko v juniju). Kljub navedenim padcem v rudarstvu, pa so bili polletni trendi (1. polletje 2022/1. polletje 2021) še vedno pozitivni, še posebej izrazito prav v tej dejavnosti. Bila je višja za 18 % v rudarstvu, v predelovalnih dejavnostih za 5,3 %, medtem ko je bila v oskrbi z električno energijo, plinom in paro nižja za 19 %, predvsem zaradi nižje proizvodnje električne energije v hidroelektrarnah. Vir: Statistični urad RS
June data on trade of goods was mainly due to rising prices and higher turnover of trade goods that were not manufactured in Slovenia, as well as higher turnover (imports and exports) of energy products. June’s exports of goods (EUR 5.3 billion; more than EUR 1 billion above our estimate) were 57% higher y-o-y, while imports (EUR 4.8 billion) were 40% higher. Trade balance was positive in June. It amounted to EUR 0.5 billion, while a deficit was noted in all the previous five months of the year. This was due to higher exports of pharmaceutical products in Slovenia (part of them were stocked in Slovenia for some months), which influenced increased imports in the previous months. Exports of goods in the H1 were almost a third higher y-o-y (it amounted to EUR 25.5 billion), while imports increased by almost half (to EUR 27.7 billion). The deficit in goods trade in this period amounted to EUR 2.2 billion, and the export-import coverage was 92.0%.
Svetovni proizvodni PMI (JP Morgan in S&P Global) se je julija ponovno znižal, in sicer na 2-letno dno (51,1). Tako odraža stagnacijo industrijske proizvodnje na svetu (output indeks pri 50), predvsem pa negotovo izglede, saj se je obseg novih naročil ponovno znižal, dinamika nastajanja novih delovnih mest pa se je ustavila. Že tretjič v zadnjih štirih mesecih se je obseg proizvodnje v vmesni proizvodnji znižal, kar pretežno odraža težave v industrijah, ki pri svoji proizvodnji uporabljajo veliko energentov in surovin.
US GDP shrank by 0.9% on an annualized rate in Q2 (this is not comparable to the year-over-year change as we know it in Europe), while it was down 1.6% in Q1. The drop was the result of reduced inventories (mainly at general department stores and motor vehicle dealers), investment in housing construction, lower federal and state consumption (lower needs due to the end of pandemic). Lower stocks had an impact of as much as 2 p.p. on lower GDP (than it would otherwise be), and housing investments for 0.7 p.p. in addition. Analysts had expected growth of 0.4% of GDP. On the other hand, household consumption increased, as did exports, which are actually key components of quality economic growth.
Ameriški BDP se je v 2. četrtletju skrčil za 0,9 % na letni osnovi (to ni primerljivo z medletno spremembo, kot jo poznamo v Evropi), medtem ko je bil v 1. četrtletju nižji za 1,6 %. Padec je bil posledica znižanja zalog (predvsem pri splošnih trgovcih in pri trgovcih z motornimi vozili), investicij v stanovanjsko gradnjo, nižje potrošnje države za federalni ravni in ravni posameznih držav (manjše potrebe zaradi pandemije). Nižje zaloge so vplivale kar za 2 o. t. nižji BDP (kot bi sicer bil), stanovanjske investicije pa denimo 0,7 o. t. Analitiki so pričakovali rast v višini 0,4 % BDP. Na drugi strani se je potrošnja gospodinjstev povečala kot tudi izvoz, ki sta dejansko ključni komponenti kakovostne gospodarske rasti. Pi izvozu je izstopala večja rast izvoza industrijskega blaga in surovin (naftnih derivatov in plina), kot tudi hrane, krmil in pijač. Pri storitvah je izstopala rast izvoza potovanj, kar pomeni večjo potrošnjo tujih turistov v ZDA. Na strani uvoza je izstopala rast uvoza potovanj, kar pomeni večjo potrošnjo državljanov ZDA v tujini, kar je bilo posledica tako povečanja potovanj in letalskega prometa kot močnega dolarja, ki povečuje kupno moč Američanom. Znotraj potrošnje gospodinjstev so upadli nakupi blaga, povečalo pa se je trošenje storitev, še posebej v turizmu, zdravstvu in transportnih storitev. Poslovne investicije so ostale realno nespremenjene, kar odraža omahovanje zasebnega sektorja glede investicij. Posledično lahko zaključimo, da je bil padec BDP statistične narave ter so ZDA res vstopile v recesijo (dva zaporedna znižanja BDP), vendar je ta izključno tehnične narave, saj se je zaposlenost še povečala in so kakovostne komponente BDP porasle. V 3. četrtletju lahko v ZDA pričakujemo okoli 2-odstotno rast, že na podlagi aktualnih podatkov za mesec julij. Ameriško gospodarstvo je bilo v 2. četrtletju realno za 2,5 % večje kot v četrtletju pred izbruhom pandemije (4. četrtletje 2019).