In January 2022, consumer price growth in the euro area (HICP methodology) increased more than expected (median change on Reuters: +4.4% compared to January 2021), that is by 5.1% (in December prices were up by 5% year on year). Our forecast was among the most accurate among the 41 institutions (5.2%), despite being the highest. The central assessment did not record such a large error for a long time (institutions submitted forecasts until 26 January 2022), which is due to significant differences in the models of transferring raw material and energy prices to final prices of goods and services. In January 2022, year-on-year price growth was highest in Lithuania (+12.2%), Estonia (+11.7%), Slovakia (+8.5%) and Belgium (+8.5%).

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The economic climate in Slovenia improved slightly in January 2022 (from 5.1 to 5.7), which was slightly less than we expected (growth by 1 index point) but on the basis of other confidence indicators (which are part of the economic climate) as we thought. Confidence in services (by 0.5 percentage points) and retail trade (by 0.1 percentage points) contributed to the increase in the value of the indicator on a monthly basis. Indicators of confidence in manufacturing, construction (we expected the growth of these two) and among consumers had no impact on the change.

Gospodarska klima v Sloveniji se je januarja 2022 pričakovano nekoliko izboljšala (s 5,1 na 5,7), kar je bilo sicer nekoliko manj od naših pričakovanj (rast za 1 indeksno točko) in na podlagi drugih kazalnikov zaupanja (ki sestavljajo gospodarsko klimo), kot smo mislili. K zvišanju vrednosti kazalnika na mesečni ravni sta namreč prispevala kazalnika zaupanja v storitvenih dejavnostih (za 0,5 odstotne točke) in trgovini na drobno (za 0,1 odstotne točke). Kazalniki zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih, gradbeništvu (prav rast teh dveh smo pričakovali) in med potrošniki nanjo niso imeli vpliva.

Po novembrskem (80,8 USD) in decembrskem (74,3 USD) padcu cen nafte je postalo jasno, da je bilo to le začasnega značaja. Cena nafte brent se je povzpela nad 88 USD za sodček, na najvišjo vrednost v zadnjih sedmih letih, kar je blizu naši oceni za povprečje leta (85 USD), medtem ko je glavnina institucij še pred nekaj meseci ocenjevala, da bo njena cena v 2022 upadla na okoli 70 do 75 USD. Pospešek ceni je dal napad na skladiščne zmogljivosti v Združenih arabskih emiratih. Geopolitične napetosti na vzhodu Evrope in skrbi glede zadostnih prostih zmogljivosti za črpanje v državah OPEC so prav tako prispevale k visoki ceni. Dvig cen nafte bo ponovno prispeval k rasti medletne inflacije v vseh državah.

After the November’s (USD 80.8) and December’s (USD 74.3) fall in oil prices, it became clear that this was a temporary situation. The price of a barrel of Brent oil has risen above USD 88 per barrel, to the highest value in seven years, which is close to our estimate for the average of the year (USD 85), while the majority of institutions estimated a few months ago that the price will fall to around 70 to 75 USD. The acceleration in price was due to an attack on storage facilities in the United Arab Emirates. Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and concerns about sufficient spare capacity in OPEC countries have also contributed to the high rise. Rising oil prices will once again contribute to rising year-on-year inflation in all countries.

Industrijska proizvodnja v novembru je bila v območju evra višja za 2,3 % glede na predhodni mesec, kar je visoka rast. Zmerno rast se je sicer pričakovalo, saj je bil padec v oktobru 1,3-odstoten. Opozoriti je potrebno tudi na statistično anomalijo, povezano z Irsko, kjer je industrijska proizvodnja »na papirju« v oktobru upadla za 32 %, v novembru pa je porasla za 37 %. V Nemčiji in Franciji se je novembra nekoliko znižala, porasla je v Španija in na Nizozemskem. Kljub padcu v Nemčiji so ostale države srednje Evrope beležile krepko rast. Na Poljskem je rast znašala 5,9 %, na Češkem 4,8 %, na Slovaškem 3,5 %, na Madžarskem 2,9 % in v Sloveniji 2,8 %. Na ravni EU-27 se je novembra okrepila predvsem rast proizvodnje investicijskih dobrinah (+2,3 %), potrošnih dobrin (+3 %, sicer po 3,4-odsotnem padcu v oktobru) in vmesnih proizvodov (1,4 %), medtem ko je bila pri trajnih dobrinah (vozila ipd.) nespremenjena.

The total value of industrial production in Slovenia in November 2021 was 2.8% higher than in October 2021, which was significantly higher than we expected (no change compared to October). It was higher in manufacturing and mining (by 3.2% and 2.6%, respectively), and lower in energy (by 2.9%), mainly due to poorer rainfalls. Compared to November 2020, it was higher by 10.1% and compared to November 2019 by 8.7%.

According to first estimate, Slovenia exported goods worth EUR 3.7 billion in November 2021, which was almost a quarter more than in the same month last year. In the first 11 months of the past year, growth was 19% (relative growth was the same in EU countries as in other countries), but of course the nominal increase in exports on the EU market was correspondingly much higher. In the autumn forecast, we estimated that the growth of exports in 2021 will be 12%. In same month, EUR 4.17 billion worth of goods were imported (26% more).

V novembru 2021 je Slovenija izvozila po prvih ocenah za 3,7 mrd EUR blaga, kar je bilo skoraj za četrtino več kot v istem mesecu lani. V 11 mesecih leta je bila rast 19-odstotna. Še v jesenski napovedi smo pri Analitiki GZS ocenjevali, da bo rast izvoza v 2021 12-odstotna. Rast uvoza blaga je znašala 30 % v prvih 11 mesecih (naša jesenska ocena: +17 %). Iz držav EU smo uvozili za 24 % več, iz držav nečlanic pa za 42 %, k čemer je prispevala tudi visoka rast cen surovin in energentov. Tako pri rasti uvoza in izvoza moramo opozoriti na rast prometa z blagom, ki ni izdelan v Sloveniji (cestna vozila, del električne energije ipd.) in vpliva višjih cen surovin in energentov na rast. Glede na podatke o blagovni menjavi v novembru lahko ugotovimo, da je bilo zadnje četrtletje 2021 precej verjetno dobro tako za izvoznike kot za domačo potrošnjo in investicijsko potrošnjo. Prva ocena rasti realnega BDP med 6 in 7 % za 2021 je tako precej na mestu.