Release date 30 May 2022
The forward-looking indicators in May show a continuation of the moderate growth in the EA-19
As expected, the economic climate in Slovenia decreased slightly in May (-1.4 percentage points compared to April, our estimate: -1.5 p.p.). Change was negatively affected by fall in in manufacturing confidence (-0.9 p.p.) and consumer sentiment (-0.7 p.p.). The effects of services and construction indicators were positive (each contributed +0.2 p.p.). The confidence indicator in retail trade had no effect. Compared to May 2021, the value of the economic climate indicator was lower by 2.8 p.p. Compared to the long-term average, optimism was highest in construction (+36 p.p.), retail trade (+16 p.p.) and services (+8 p.p.). In manufacturing it remained higher, but only by 2 p.p.
In March, nominal growth in services turnover was 0.7%, which is relatively meagre change. Revenues increased the most in hotels and restaurants (by 12.2%). They were also higher in other miscellaneous business activities (by 5.6%), in ICT sector (by 1.3%) and in transport and storage (by 0.4%). They were lower than in February in real estate (by 2.8%) and in professional, scientific and technical activities (by 0.5%). In the first Q1 2022, year-on-year revenue growth was 20%. As expected, it was highest in the hospitality industry (+208%), due to imposed restrictions last year (and lack of them in this year) and was also high in transport (+16%), real estate (+25%), professional, scientific and technical activities (+14%) and other diversified activities (+17%). Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia
More economic topics are below in the attachment.
The composite PMI in the UK fell significantly in May (from 58.2 to 51.8), to its lowest level in 15 months. This was mainly due to a large decline in services, while the estimate of current production in manufacturing rose sharply (from 51.8 to 54.3). The assessment of business expectations was the main contributor to the fall in sentiment, as companies expect real household consumption to fall due to increase in prices of food and energy. Source: S&P Global, CIPS
The composite PMI in the USA fell sharply in May (from 56 to 53.8), reflecting declining optimism in services (from 55.6 to 53.5), current output (from 57.6 to 55.2) and expectations in production (from 59.2 to 57.5). Despite the decline, overall optimism in the private sector remained high. Investment in strengthening of local supply chains has increased. The decline in optimism was due to corporate concerns about the impact of inflation on the purchasing intentions of American households. Source: S&P Global
BIS residential property price statistics, Q4 2021; Statistical Release, BIS; 25 May 2022. Available at: https://www.bis.org/statistics/pp_residential_2205.pdf
Comment/Abstract: Global growth in real house prices moderated to 4.6% year on year in aggregate in the final quarter of 2021, down from 5.4% in the previous quarter. This reflected record growth in nominal house prices post-GFC, from 9.2% to 9.8% year on year, offset by the parallel rapid rise in CPI inflation. Real house price growth remained strong in advanced economies (AEs), at +8.1%, but was markedly lower in emerging market economies (EMEs), which saw growth of 1.9% on average (Graph 1). There were, however, substantial differences across major EME regions: real house price growth reached 11.4% in central and eastern Europe, while it was considerably lower in emerging Asia (0.0%), Latin America (0.8%) and the Middle East and Africa region (1.8%).
CPI, Slovenia, May 2022, (31 May), Statistical Office of RS; +0.6% m-o-m
Comment: After spectacular 2.6% monthly inflation in April, we expect it to come down to 0.6%, reflecting lower prices of gasoline.
“Always remember... Rumors are carried by haters, spread by fools, and accepted by idiots.”
(Ziad K. Abdelnour, Economic Warfare: Secrets of Wealth Creation in the Age of Welfare Politics)
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