Release date 6 June 2022
Strong growth in trade of goods reflects high growth in consumption and investment as well as in prices
The dynamics of trade in goods remained at a high level in April as well. Contrary to expectations, it even intensified. April exports of goods (EUR 4.2 billion; our estimate: EUR 3.9 billion) were almost EUR 1 billion higher than in the same month last year, while imports (EUR 4.7 billion) were EUR 1.4 billion higher. Year-on-year, exports of goods grew by 29% (24% in the first four months) and imports by 43% (48% in the first four months). The trade balance (difference between exports and imports of goods) remained negative in April (-EUR 570 million) and increased to EUR 2.2 billion in the first four months of the current year, which is extremely high relative to GDP (12% of GDP). In the coming months, we expect a slowdown in private consumption growth, as well as the effect of higher exports due to higher prices of industrial products, so we estimate that the monthly deficit will decrease dynamically. Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia
The monthly survey unemployment rate in Slovenia was 4.0% in April, the same as in March 2022, what was 0.8 p. p. less than in April 2021. The Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia estimates that in the number of unemployed people was approximately 41,000 (aged 15-74), of whom 51% were men and 49% women. The survey unemployment rate among men was 3.8% and 4.3% among women. Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia
More economic topics are below in the attachment.
Flash estimate of May inflation (HICP) in the euro area (8.1%) was significantly above consensus estimate (7.7%) and reached a new peak (7.4% in April). On a monthly basis (compared to April) prices rose by 0.8%, with prices excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco (68% of the consumer basket) rising by 0.5% (core inflation). This proves that the rise in prices is also being passed on to other goods and services, while growth in primary prices remains high. Prices of manufactured goods increased by 0.6%, services by 0.4%, energy by 2% and food, alcohol and tobacco by 1.3%. Among the EA-19 countries, price growth stood out in Latvia (+3.6%), Lithuania (+2.2%) and Slovenia (+2.0%). Prices fell only in the Netherlands (-0.8%), mainly due to the extraordinary rise in April. Source: Eurostat
The global composite PMI did not change significantly in May (52.4) compared to April (52.3). World output declined also in May, but at a slower pace than in April. If we exclude China from this equation, current output growth was high (52.7). Economic trends were historically above average in the USA, the euro area and Japan, despite a slight slowdown compared to April values. Employment growth was also the highest in these economies. New orders rose in the consumer and in sector of investment goods but declined slightly in the intermediate production. Growth in input and sales prices was higher in developed countries than in developing countries. Source: JP Morgan
Pablo Hernández de Cos: The inflationary episode in the euro area and the European Central Bank's monetary policy normalisation process; Central bank speech, BIS; 3 June 2022. Available at: https://www.bis.org/review/r220603j.htm
Comment/Abstract: A great overview of different inflation drivers between USA, EA-19 and Spain. It also gives dimension on heterogenous inflation patterns across EA-19 countries which is also affected by the time of transmission from wholesale energy prices to retail prices.
Industrial production, Slovenia, April 2022, (10 June), Statistical Office of RS; +0.8% m-o-m
Comment: After a remarkable monthly growth in March (+3.9%), growth in April is expected to be very modest (+0.8%). In addition, first estimates and subsequent revisions to monthly change may be significant. We nevertheless see positive overall developments in Slovenian manufacturing, mainly as a result of high PMIs at main trading partners.
“The curious mind embraces science; the gifted and sensitive, the arts; the practical, business; the leftover becomes an economist.”
(Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms)