Release date 8. avgust 2022
Stagnant world’s industrial production
June data on trade of goods was mainly due to rising prices and higher turnover of trade goods that were not manufactured in Slovenia, as well as higher turnover (imports and exports) of energy products. June’s exports of goods (EUR 5.3 billion; more than EUR 1 billion above our estimate) were 57% higher y-o-y, while imports (EUR 4.8 billion) were 40% higher. Trade balance was positive in June. It amounted to EUR 0.5 billion, while a deficit was noted in all the previous five months of the year. This was due to higher exports of pharmaceutical products in Slovenia (part of them were stocked in Slovenia for some months), which influenced increased imports in the previous months. Exports of goods in the H1 were almost a third higher y-o-y (it amounted to EUR 25.5 billion), while imports increased by almost half (to EUR 27.7 billion). The deficit in goods trade in this period amounted to EUR 2.2 billion, and the export-import coverage was 92.0%. Largest share of total exports and imports in the H1 was represented by products from the commodity sector, chemicals and related products (around 33% of exports and 32% of imports; this also includes processing or trade of goods manufactured abroad), machinery and transport appliances (about 27% of exports and 23% of imports), products classified by material (about 18% of exports and 16% of imports), miscellaneous industrial products (about 8% of exports and 7% of imports) and mineral fuels and lubricants (about 7% exports and slightly more than a tenth of imports). Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia
More economic topics are below in the attachment.
The global manufacturing PMI fell again in July to a 2-year low (51.1). It now reflects stagnantindustrial production in the world (output index at 50). The volume of new orders has decreased again, and the creation of new jobs in manufacturing sector has stopped. For the third time in the last four months, the volume of production in intermediate manufacturing decreased, which mainly reflects problems in industries that use a lot of energy and raw materials in their production. New orders mainly shrank in intermediate (semi-finished products) and investment manufacturing (machines, etc.), while they remained unchanged in industries that manufacture products for consumers. Employment in the USA, the euro area and Japan increased further, but it decreased in China. Overall sentiment in global manufacturing fell to its lowest level since May 2020. Among the countries, the drop in the manufacturing sentiment in the USA, the euro area, Japan and the United Kingdom stood out. In developing countries, however, production increased (second consecutive month), mainly due to the withdrawal of containment measures in China. Manufacturing activity was also positive in India and Brazil, while declines were present in Russia, Poland, Taiwan and in Turkey. Australia, which is an important exporter of coal and other raw materials, also greatly increased production, and among the major countries of the euro zone, trends were positive only in the Netherlands. Input (buying prices) and output (selling prices) price pressures were easing (increasing at the slowest rate in the last 17 months), which is positive for the future outlook. Source: S&P Global, JP Morgan, IFPSM
Producer prices of industrial products in the EU-27 were 1.3% higher in June (our estimate: +0.9%), mainly due to price growth in energy products (+3.2%), while price growth in manufacturing sectors was lower (0.8% for durable consumer goods, 0.7% for current goods, 0.4% for semi-finished goods and 0.3% for capital goods). Source: Eurostat
Tracking US inequality in real time; Thomas Blanchet, Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman; voxEU; 3 August 2022. Available at: https://voxeu.org/article/tracking-us-inequality-real-time
Comment/Abstract: Inequality statistics come with a lag relative to growth statistics. This article presents new real-time inequality statistics for the US, synchronised with growth statistics, which show that all income groups recovered their pre-crisis pre-tax income level within 20 months of the beginning of the Covid-induced recession. Covid-related transfers drastically but temporarily increased disposable incomes for the bottom 50%, well above their pre-Covid levels. Real wages experienced significant gains at the bottom of the distribution, highlighting the equalising effects of tight labour markets. Files and real-time distributional growth statistics are available at https://realtimeinequality.org are updated with each release of the national accounts, within a few hours.
Industrial production, EA-19, June 2022, (12 August), Eurostat; -1.2% m-o-m (+0.8% May 22/Apr 22)
Comment: Due to deteriorating leading indicators we expect the industrial production already to drop in June, although this is not a consensus view. High energy prices and lack of dynamics in automotive industry are according to our view the main contributors.
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