Release date 17. October 2022
Inflation continues to inflate trade in goods and sales figures
Current account showed a surplus of EUR 70 m in August, EUR 106 m less than in August of the previous year. Only services added to a surplus (EUR 377 m), while trade in goods (-EUR 151 m) and primary and secondary incomes achieved a deficit (-EUR 155 m). In the first eight months, the current account deficit amounted to EUR 213 m, while in the same period in 2021 there was a surplus of EUR 1.6 bn. The deterioration of the current account balance was most affected by trade in goods, with a EUR 2.6 billion lower balance (the deficit in trade in goods amounted to EUR 1.6 bn in 2022, while in the same period in 2021 there was a surplus in the amount of EUR 1 bn; exports y-o-y increased by 24%, and imports by 37%). Exports to EU member states accounted for 77% of total exports in 2022 and, compared to the same period of the previous year, increased by 25% or EUR 4.3 bn. Exports to Croatia and Italy increased the most (a total increase of 2.1 bn), followed by exports to Germany and Austria; all four countries together contributed three quarters of the increase in exports to the EU. Imports from EU member states accounted for three quarters of total imports and, compared to the same period in 2021, increased by 31.6% or EUR 5.3 bn. Imports increased the most from the same countries as on the export side, with all four countries together accounting for 62% of all the increase in imports from the EU. Imports from Austria and Italy stood out, with a total increase of 2 bn. Trade in services maintained a surplus during this period (eight months of 2022) and increased it by EUR 860 m, while primary and secondary incomes together increased the deficit by EUR 134 m. The surplus in trade in services in the first eight months of 2022 amounted to EUR 2.3 bn, which is EUR 860 m more than in the same period in 2021. The largest increase was in net travel expenditure, namely by EUR 550 m. The highest positive net balance was achieved by transport services (EUR 920 m) and travel expenditure (EUR 910 m). Exports of all services increased by 35% and imports by 26% during this period. The deficit of primary incomes amounted to EUR 595 mi, which is a tenth more than in 2021. The larger deficit is the result of a decrease in receipts (mainly receipts from other primary incomes). The deficit of secondary income in this period amounted to EUR 398 m and was EUR 79 m higher than in the same period in 2021. Source: Banka Slovenije
More economic topics are below in the attachment.
The Global Composite PMI strengthened slightly in September but remained below 50 (at 49.7; 49.3 in August), suggesting a slight contraction in the global economy. The volume of new orders remained unchanged, as they fell in manufacturing, while they strengthened in services. Three out of six sectors of the private economy registered declines (consumer services, intermediate production and production of capital goods). Strong growth was recorded only in the financial sector, and partly in the consumer goods and business services sector. The declines were mainly present in developed economies (the USA, the euro zone, excluding France), namely in both production and services. Employment increased further, especially in the US, the euro area and Japan. The services indicator strengthened from 49.3 to 50 in September. Source: JP Morgan, S&P Global
August dynamics of industrial production at the EU-27 level were a positive surprise. It strengthened by 1.1% m-o-m (+1.5% in the EA-19) and was thus 3.5% higher y-o-y (2.5% in the EA-19). Production of capital goods grew by 2% m-o-m of non-durable consumer goods by 0.9% and durable goods by 0.3%. The production of semi-finished products declined (-0.4%), which is most subject to higher energy costs and is very competitive internationally. The drop in electricity production was 2% and reflected poor hydrology and thus lower electricity production in hydropower plants and also in nuclear power plants. In Germany, industrial production fell for the second consecutive month (by 0.5% in August), and in France, after a 1.6% drop in July, it grew by 2.5%. Italy surprised positively, where after 0.5% growth in July, it strengthened by additional 2.3% in August. Source: Eurostat
Global supply chain disruptions: evolution, impact, outlook; Deniz Igan, Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul and Koji Takahashi; BIS Bulletin No 61; 28 September 2022; available at: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull61.htm
Comment/Abstract: Global supply chain disruptions ("bottlenecks") have been easing gradually, albeit unevenly across sectors and regions. However, they remain significant relatively to the historical norm. The intricacies of today's global value chains account for the persistence and severe macroeconomic impact of bottlenecks in spite of their recent easing. Highly concentrated sectors such as semiconductors are prime examples. While continued easing of bottlenecks – which should help moderate inflation – is the most likely scenario, there are upside risks to inflation from more protracted bottleneck-induced disruptions. Nor can new bottlenecks be ruled out.
ESI, Slovenia, September, (21 October), Statistical Office of RS; -6 (-5 in September 2022)
Comment: As CPI fell in September (-0,9 %) we expect consumer confidence to improve, but manufacturing, services and construction sentiment is likely to drop a bit what should translate into a drop of Economic Sentiment Index in Slovenia.
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