Release date 16. avgust 2022
June data suggest good performance of Slovenian economy in H1
Industrial production increased by 1.7% m-o-m in June, according to original data (+3.1% y-o-y), which was mainly due to the growth of in manufacturing (+2% m-o-m; +6% y-o-y). As it is usual for industrial production to increase in June compared to May, changes based on seasonally adjusted data were different. Thus, IP fell by 0.2% m-o-m, of which by 0.6% in manufacturing activities (92% of total IP). For the second consecutive month, drop was high in mining (7% in May as well as in June). Despite the declines in mining, the half-year trends (H1 2022/H1 2021) were still positive, especially in this sector, due to strong performance in first 4 months. IP was higher by 18% in H1 in mining, in manufacturing by 5.3%, while in the supply of electricity, gas and steam it was lower by 19%, mainly due to lower electricity production in hydroelectric power plants. In the end of July, there was an accident in largest and the only coal mine in Slovenia, which represents a big share of mining sector which is likely to depress output in this sector mainly in August. Source: Statistical Office of RS
Between October 2021 and January 2022, the share of employees who worked from home every day of the week increased. After January, there were fewer such employees - in June, only 1% remained, which is the same as in October 2021. Share of employees who worked from home at least one day a week was 10% in October 2021 and rose to 20% by January 2022. In June, there were 9% of such employees, which is 1 p.p. less than in October 2021, when Statistical Office of RS started collecting this data. Source: Statistical Office of RS
More economic topics are below in the attachment.
July’s CPI in USA has not changed, while it was higher by 8.5% y-o-y (9.1% in June). Key contributor were lower fuel prices (-7.7% m-o-m), which neutralized the growth of food prices (+1.1%) and shelter. Prices excluding food and energy (core inflation) were 0.3% higher m-o-m, which was less than in previous three months. Prices of shelter, medical care, car insurance, housing equipment, new vehicles and tourism have increased the most. The prices of air tickets (lower kerosene prices) used cars and vans (current production is improving), communications and clothing have fallen. Source: BLS
Producer prices of industrial products in the EU-27 were 1.3% higher in June (our estimate: +0.9%), mainly due to price growth in energy products (+3.2%), while price growth in manufacturing sectors was lower (0.8% for durable consumer goods, 0.7% for current goods, 0.4% for semi-finished goods and 0.3% for capital goods). Source: Eurostat
June’s industrial production (IP) in EU-27 increased by 0.6% (seasonally adjusted) compared to May (and was thus 3.2% higher y-o-y), which was more than we expected (-1.2 %). This proves that the leading indicators (ESI, PMI…) primarily indicate a deterioration in business expectations, while June eluded these prophecies. Production of capital goods (machines and devices) was up by 2.1% and energy by 0.7%. The production of non-durable consumer goods was lower by 2.3% and of durable goods by 1.1%. As usually small member states experienced larger monthly swings, which are statistically less important for the EU-27 aggregate level. Therefore, we highlight the growth in France (+1.3%) and Germany (+0.6%), which was higher than the negative contribution of Italy (-2.1%). In Poland, IP contracted for the third consecutive month (-0.2% in June, as in Slovenia), but those monthly changes were rather small. Source: Eurostat
Striking a bargain: Narrative identification of wage bargaining shocks; Žymantas Budrys, Mario Porqueddu, Andrej Sokol; voxEU; 13 August 2022. Available at: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/striking-bargain-narrative-identification-wage-bargaining-shocks
Comment/Abstract: Workers and employers bargain over the surplus income generated by an employment relationship. This article uses information about key events in Germany relevant for wage negotiations, like labour strikes and the introduction of a minimum wage, to show changes in bargaining power between workers and employers. It finds that such wage bargaining ‘shocks’ are important drivers of unemployment and inflation and that their effect on wages is almost fully reflected in prices. Furthermore, they reduce the vacancy rate and increase firms’ profits and the labour share of income in the short run, but not in the long run.
GDP, Slovenia, Q2 2022, (16 August), Statistical Office of RS; +1.0% (q-o-q, seasonally adjusted)
Comment: We expect a pick-up in GDP growth to 1.0 % (0.8% in Q1), based on preliminary EU-27 reading and generally good data for Q2.
“There is an urgent need to stop subsidizing the fossil fuel industry, dramatically reduce wasted energy, and significantly shift our power supplies from oil, coal, and natural gas to wind, solar, geothermal, and other renewable energy sources.”
(Bill McKibben)