The economic climate index worsened as expected in July (it fell by 1.7 index point to -1.1) and is now slightly below the long-term average, which reflects the slowdown of economic dynamics, and above all negative expectations of consumers and partly of manufacturing sector regarding business conditions in the coming months. The common denominator of these challenges is the high prices of energy products and raw materials, which reduce the disposable income of households. In manufacturing, the added concern is greater due to the danger of reductions in natural gas flows.

Gospodarska klima v Sloveniji se je v mesecu juliju pričakovano poslabšala (znižala se je za 1,7 o. t. na -1,1) in je zdaj nekoliko pod dolgoletnim povprečjem, kar odraža upočasnjeno gospodarsko dinamiko, predvsem pa izrazito negativna pričakovanja potrošnikov in delno predelovalnih dejavnostih glede pogojev poslovanja v prihodnjih mesecih. Skupni imenovalec teh izzivov so visoke cene energentov in surovin, ki zmanjšujejo razpoložljiv dohodek gospodinjstev, v industriji pa je skrb večja zaradi nevarnosti redukcij zemeljskega plina.

Slovenia’s industrial production increased by 0.8% in May (as in the euro area), which was more than our estimate (+0.2%) and faster than in April (+0.4%). Although this data is less reliable, it nevertheless shows that solid data (data showing revenues, production) in the first half of the year has not deteriorated significantly. Production in manufacturing increased by only 0.2%. Sector of electricity, gas and steam supply contributed the most to the monthly growth, as it increased production by 5.1%. In mining, production fell by 7.7%, which mainly reflects volatile changes in the amount of mined lignite at Premogovnik Velenje. On a yearly basis, industrial production in the first five months was higher by 3.5%, of which in mining by 23% and in manufacturing by 5.1%. In the supply of electricity, gas and steam, it was lower by one-sixth, which reflects poor hydrology and thus low level of electricity production in hydro power plants.

Industrijska proizvodnja v Sloveniji se je v mesecu maju povečala za 0,8 % (prav toliko tudi v območju evra), kar je bilo več od naše ocene (+0,2 %) in več kot v mesecu aprilu (+0,4 %). Ti podatki so sicer začasne narave, kar pomeni, da so manj zanesljivi, vseeno pa kažejo, da se trdni podatki (podatki, ki kažejo prihodke, proizvodnjo) v gospodarstvu v 1. polletju v Sloveniji niso pomembno poslabšali. Industrijska proizvodnja v predelovalnih dejavnostih se je zvišala le za 0,2 %. K mesečni rasti je tako najbolj prispevala dejavnost oskrbe z električno energijo, plinom in paro, ki je porasla za 5,1 %. V rudarstvu se je znižala na 7,7 %, kar pretežno odraža spremembe v količini izkopanega lignita v Premogovniku Velenje.

J.P. Morgan Global Composite rose as expected in June (from 51.3 in May to 53.5), largely driven by an increase in manufacturing in China as the bulk of containment measures were lifted in Shanghai. PMI ex. China dropped from 53.9 to 53.1. World production thus increased in June after the decline in April and May. Growth in the service sector was the highest in the last four months. Growth was faster in business services and consumer goods manufacturing, while it moderated in consumer services. In Brazil, India and China, the value of the indicator was the highest (among the 14 large world economies), while its value strengthened the most in Japan, the United Kingdom and Brazil. The Chinese and Russian economies are recovering, while growth has slowed in all other economies. New orders rose for the slowest time since July 2020, while new export orders contracted for the fourth consecutive month. Source: S&P Global

Globalni sestavljeni PMI (J.P. Morgan Composite) se je v juniju pričakovano povečal (s 51,3 v maju na 53,5 v juniju), kar je bilo posledica povečanja proizvodnje na Kitajskem zaradi umika pretežnega dela zajezitvenih ukrepov v Šanghaju. V kolikor bi iz indeksa izločili Kitajsko, bi se PMI znižal, in sicer s 53,9 na 53,1. Svetovna proizvodnja se je tako po aprilskem in majskem padcu v juniju povečala. Rast v storitvenem sektorju je bila najvišja v zadnjih štirih mesecih. Rast je bila hitrejša v poslovnih storitvah in proizvodnji potrošniških izdelkov, medtem ko se je umirila pri potrošniških storitvah. V Braziliji, Indiji in na Kitajskem je bila vrednost indikatorja najvišja (med 14 velikimi svetovnimi gospodarstvi), medtem ko se je njegova vrednost najbolj okrepila na Japonskem, v Združenem kraljestvu in Braziliji. Kitajsko in rusko gospodarstvo se ponovno krepita, medtem ko se je rast upočasnila v vseh ostalih gospodarstvih. Nova naročila so se povečala najpočasneje po juliju 2020, medtem ko so se nova izvozna naročila skrčila še četrti zaporedni mesec.

Consensus Economics, mesečna anketa med neodvisnimi inštitucijami, ki napovedujejo gospodarska gibanja za države, je za Slovenijo v mesecu juniju nekoliko pričakovano dvignil obete za gospodarsko rast v letošnjem letu (+0,4 odstotne točke v 1 mesecu) in celo v letu 2023 (+0,1 odstotne točke), kar je predvsem posledica dveh dejavnikov - okrepitve pričakovanj o dvigu realne rasti potrošnje gospodinjstev (s 5,5 % na 7 % v 2022 in s 2,8 na 3 % v 2023) in pričakovanj o rasti investicij (s 5,1 na 7,5 % v 2022) ter rasti industrijske proizvodnje (s 3,4 % na 3,5 % v 2022 in s 3,0 na 3,1 % v 2023) in s tem realne rasti izvoza blaga. Dvig ocene za leto 2022 v veliki meri izvira iz visokega učinka prenosa in s tem visoke gospodarske rasti v 1. četrtletju (realno skoraj za desetino več). Med državami v vzhodni in južni Evropi so obeti za gospodarsko rast v 2022 višji le še za Poljsko (4,9 %), nekoliko nižji so za Madžarsko (4,5 %). Obeti za rast v prihodnjem letu so se pretežno znižali, z izjemo za Slovenijo, kjer so se zvišali.

Exports and imports of services increased by about a third y-o-y in the first four months of 2022. Among the most important groups of services, exports of travel (+EUR 390 m), transport (+EUR 205 m), other business services (+EUR 95 m; intellectual services) and telecommunications, computer and information services (+EUR 64 m) increased the most. Exports of construction services remained unchanged.

First estimates on the performance of private sector in the Q1 2022 showed that companies were not able to fully transfer higher prices of raw materials and energy into final prices, as gross margin decreased by 3 percentage points q-o-q to 22% (measured as share of value added in sales). It was at this level in 2018. In mining (-8 p. p.), energy (-10 p. p.) and in service activities (finance, professional, scientific and technical activities, healthcare), the declines were the largest. In manufacturing and trade, two sectors that otherwise generate the highest nominal added value and employ the most people, the gross margin fell by 1 p. p. Accounting for this fact it may sound odd how Slovenia’s was able to record positive GDP growth in the Q1 2022. This can be explained by high sales growth, which stems from price growth, which rose nominally much more than value added. But despite that real value added increased, albeit at lower pace. Despite the decline in gross margin, the share of labor costs in value added fell further (to 57% from 58% in the previous quarter), which means that labor costs grew more slowly than value added. The mentioned data does not provide other, quantitatively useful data. Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia