Weekly Economic Highlights: April’s economic sentiment above expectations

25_04_2022_Weekly Economic Highlights

Release date 25 April 2022

April’s economic sentiment above expectations

On Slovenia's Economy

  • The economic sentiment indicator in Slovenia stood at 4.3 percentage points in April and was 2.7 percentage points (p.p.) higher than in the previous month (1.6). Indicator was higher due to higher value of confidence indicators in services (by 1.3 p.p.), consumer sentiments (by 1.1 p.p.) and retail trade (by 0.6 p.p.). The impact of confidence indicators in manufacturing and construction was slightly negative (by 0.1 and 0.2 p.p., respectively). Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia.

  • Growth in February’s gross wages at legal entities (paid in March) in the private sector amounted to 4.2% year on year (net wages grew by 3.5%), while in the general government sector it was lower by 10.8% due to the expected absence of extraordinary allowances, while the corrected growth of wages was positive (it has not been calculated). In the first two months, year-on-year growth in the gross wage at the private sector was at 3.8% (net: 3.1%). Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia.

  • More economic topics are below in the attachment.

On World Economy

  • The first estimate of the April’s composite PMI index in the euro area exceeded expectations and rose from 54.9 to 55.8, to the 7-month high. The key factor behind the rise was the growth of the service sector (from 55.6 to 57.7). New orders in services also increased sharply. Tourism and recreation have made a key contribution to this. The current output indicator in manufacturing, on the other hand, fell from 53.1 to 50.4, which means a significant slowdown in current industrial dynamics. Here, the decline in the automotive sector was highlighted. Growth was high only in production of technological equipment. Delays in supply have increased due to the war in Ukraine and new containment measures in China.

  • According to seasonally adjusted data in the EU-27, industrial production increased by 0.6% in February, which was higher than our expectations (-1%). Production of durable consumer goods increased by 2.4%, non-durable goods by 1.7% and intermediate goods by 0.8%, while production of capital goods remained unchanged. Production in energy sector decreased by 0.6%. The highest growth rates were recorded in Italy (+4%), Croatia (+2.7%) and Ireland (+2.4%), while the decline was highest in Slovenia (-8.3%), Lithuania (-3.8%) and in Malta (-2.7%). In Slovenia, this was related to the poor hydro production. Source: Eurostat.

  • More economic topics are below in the attachment.


Must Read of the Week

  • Beyond macro: Firm-level effects of cutting off Russian energy; Raphaël Lafrogne-Joussier, Andrei Levchenko, Julien Martin, Isabelle Mejean; voxEU; 24 April 2022. Available at: https://voxeu.org/article/firm-level-effects-cutting-russian-energy

Comment/Abstract: The potential costs of cutting Russian energy imports are one of the many uncertainties. The size of these costs is related to the diffusion and amplification of the shock in production networks. This article discusses what can be learned on this topic from the analysis of firm-level data. Micro-level evidence suggests that some firms adjust, mitigating the effects of the shock. However, exposure to these shocks is heterogenous across firms. This has distributional consequences, with less exposed firms gaining market shares over more exposed ones.

Forecast of the Week

  • CPI, Slovenia, April 2022, (29 April), Statistical Office of RS; 5.2% (+0.9% monthly)

Comment: We expect the annual rise in prices to fall from 5.4% in March 2022 to 5.2% in April 2022. Higher food prices should be the main factor as energy prices are administratively lower.              


Quote of the Week

“It has to be admitted that starving nations never seem to be quite so starving that they cannot afford to have far more expensive armaments than anybody else.”

(T.H. White, The Once and Future King)

Please see the enclosed attachment