Release date 6 August 2021
Heterogenous trends in key global manufacturing hubs
In July, the Employment Service of the Republic of Slovenia stopped publishing the unofficial number of registered unemployed persons on a daily basis, and the job protection measures for employed people “staying at home, waiting for work” and “basic income” for sole entrepreneurs expired in that month. Data on the number of registered unemployed at the end of July 2021 were thus better than expected, as the number of unemployed (70,700) decreased by 0.6% or for 440 people. In addition, unemployment usually rises slightly in July due to seasonality (by around 180 people on average) compared to June, but the 10-year fluctuations were quite high and even with a different direction of change. The number of unemployed fell in 4 of 10 past years from 120 to 1,150 people, and increased in six years, from 480 to 1,270. The number of registered unemployed fell just slight above the local bottom in September 2019 (69,800) and somehow approached the “golden period” of 2007-2008, when it averaged around 67,000.
By the end of December 2021, the number of registered unemployed is expected to increase by around 1,000 to 2,000 people, an assumption that includes high expectations of new employment in many sectors. A look at the past decade shows that by the end of the year, the number of unemployed had increased by an average of 4,100 people, in the best year by 390 (2017) and in the weakest (2010) by 11,600 people.
The global production index JP Morgan Global Manufacturing showed that the sentiment in global manufacturing at the end of July (55.4) was quite similar to that in June (55.5), or that the rise in infections in some major countries did not contribute to deteriorating expectations of future or current operations. All three main types of manufacturing recorded growth, the slowest the category of consumer goods products, where growth accelerated. The highest sentiment in manufacturing was in the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, USA, while on the other hand, China (50.3) and Japan (53) were well below the average. Asia’s emerging markets were particularly weak, with activity in Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Myanmar even declining.
In July 2021, the largest growth in Europe (according to the survey run by IHS Markit) was achieved by the sectors of technological equipment, health services, machinery and equipment, chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology. High business growth was also recorded in industrial services, media, tourism and transport. Real estate activity was at the bottom, and construction and engineering did not show much business growth. The key fact is that real revenues have increased in all sectors in past 3 consecutive months, and that employment has strengthened in all 20 sectors. New orders increased in all sectors, with the exception of real estate. Nine sectors recorded record increases in input prices, most notably in the processing of minerals and energy, machinery and equipment, wood and paper products, and in construction and engineering. Production prices rose to a record high in seven sectors, most notably in wood and paper products.
Comment/Abstract: This article reviews how policy institutions – international organisations and central banks – use big data and/or machine learning methods to analyse the business cycle.
Exports of goods, Slovenia, July 21/June 21 (Statistical Office of RS): +3,0 %
Comment: After a 1.4% decline in nominal exports in June (vs. May), we expect a rebound which will be led by exports of industrial goods as well as retail items (cars, gasoline etc.).
“Much theoretical work, of course, focuses on existing economic institutions. The theorist wants to explain or forecast the economic or social outcomes that these institutions generate.” (Eric Maskin)