Release date 28. May 2021
Profits in ICT Activities Higher, the Largest Losses in Energy
A slightly more in-depth look at companies' data for FY2020 reveals that net sales revenues fell by 6.8% in 2020 (EUR -6.9 billion), of which EUR 3.7 billion on the domestic market (- 6.5%) and EUR 3.1 billion on foreign markets (-7.3%). Looking at sectoral level, the nominal decline in sales was highest in trade (EUR -2.6 billion) and manufacturing (EUR -1.8 billion), in other miscellaneous activities (EUR -470 million) and in hotels and restaurants. EUR). Sectors that were growing were rare and included construction (EUR +70 million), water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (EUR +16 million). The nominal decline in the item "costs of goods, materials and services" was at EUR 6 billion, which contributed to the increase in the gross margin (sales-costs / sales) from 23.2% to 23%. Value added decreased "only" by 1.1% or by EUR 272 million, but it should be borne in mind that the higher decline was also significantly due to higher payments of subsidies, especially those for maintaining employment. On the one hand, this contributed to a limited drop in value added, and on the other hand, it raised labor costs, which increased by EUR 338 million or by 2.3% (average labor cost per employee increased by 4.4%). EBITDA fell by 15% or by EUR 1.5 billion, and due to higher financial expenses from impairments and write-offs, net profit fell even more, by 39%. Net profit decreased the most in electricity, gas and steam supply (EUR -554 million), professional, scientific and technical activities (EUR -230 million), financial and insurance activities (EUR -197 million) and transport and storage -197 million EUR). It was higher only in ICT activities (EUR +38 million; +24%). Hospitality, energy and cultural, entertainment and recreational activities and mining ended the year with a net loss.
In the second week of May, the traffic of lorries on Slovenian motorways increased by 32% year on year, and by 1% compared to the same period in 2019. Of this, compared to 2019, it was the same for domestic vehicles and 2% higher for foreign vehicles. Growth compared to the same week last year (2020) was, of course, much higher, mainly due to extensive restrictions last year. Domestic vehicle traffic increased by 13% year-on-year and foreign traffic by 47%.
In the second week of May, electricity consumption increased by 5% year on year, and lagged behind by 5% compared to the same week in the pre-crisis year of 2019. Compared to the comparable week of 2019, consumption was lower in all partners, in France by 10%, in Croatia by 7%, and in Austria, Italy and Germany by about 3%.
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A May survey by the German IFO institute found that German companies' export expectations had cooled only slightly (23 points, 23.9 in April), but remained historically high. In particular, export orders calmed down in the automotive, food and textile industries. The electrical and mechanical engineering industries, on the other hand, are facing the acceleration of new orders, as is the case for the chemical industry. After several months of stagnation, the contracting economy also affected the German furniture industry.
The general index of economic expectations of the German IFO Institute is expected to improve in May (from 96.6 in April to 99.2 in May), the highest value since May 2019. Optimism in manufacturing has declined slightly, in services released, but rose to its highest level since February 2020. Wholesale trade is recording new orders (also due to industry growth), while retail trade expects new releases. In construction, optimism has strengthened, but the shortage of building materials is greater than it was a month ago.
Comment/Abstract: Global real property prices increased by 4% year on year in Q4 2020, against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic and the associated fiscal and monetary stimulus. Real prices grew by close to 7% on average in advanced economies (AEs), and by 2% in emerging market economies (EMEs). Part of stimulus money definitely contributed to the rise in real estate prices.
Migration from Africa, the Middle East and European Neighbouring Countries to the EU: An Augmented Gravity Modelling Approach (WiiW, Landesmann, Mara)
Comment: The South-North migration corridor, i.e. migration flows to the EU from Africa, the Middle East and EU neighbouring countries in the East, have overtaken the East-West migration corridor, i.e. migration flows from Central and East European countries to the EU15 and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). This is likely to dominate migration flows into the EU+EFTA over the coming decades. This paper applies a gravity modelling approach to analyse patterns and drivers of the South-North migration corridor over the period 1995-2020 and explores bilateral mobility patterns from 75 sending countries in Africa, the Middle East and other EU neighbours to the EU28 and EFTA countries. The study finds that income gaps, diverging demographic trends, institutional and governance features and persisting political instability, but also higher climate risks in the neighbouring regions of the EU, are fuelling migration flows along the South-North corridor and will most likely continue to do so.
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