Release date 19. Feb 2021

Explosion of consumer sentiment following reduction in restrictiveness measures

On Slovenia's Economy

• Exports of goods (BOP methodology, not Eurostat) in December were 6.7% up y-o-y, beating our expectations. For the whole 2020, decrease stood at 7.5%. Exports of services fell (-13%) less than expected due to higher exports of other services (+11%) which comprise exports in R&R and technical, with retail connected services. Transportation services exports increased by 4%. Decrease at foreign tourism receipts was expected (-83%) although it must be noted that Slovenia is not the primary target of European winter tourists.
• Value of construction works in December was below our expectations (-0.2%) and is likely to be revised up. For the whole 2020, the increase was symbolic (+0.4%) and met our expectations (+0.5%). We remain confident this indicator will increase by 8% in 2021 and by 7% in 2022.

      Read also in the attachment:

• Survey on state-aid measures 2020
• Slovenian consumer sentiment index
• Cargo transportation
• ILO unemployment rate
• Number of registered unemployed

On EU-27 

• ING nowcast indicator for EA-19 improved in the 2nd week of February. The biggest jump in the index components relates to electricity usage, which is undoubtedly related to the cold weather in large parts of Europe. However, bright spots were seen in mobility indicators. Daily trips to retail and recreation facilities as well as grocery and pharmacies have both seen an improving trend from the lows about four weeks ago. Google searches for unemployment and benefits also fell but remained significantly elevated.

    Read also in the attachment:

• January’s retail sales in Poland
• Number of new COVID-19 cases in US and Europe
• US retail sales
• Fed and ECB minutes
• Headline inflation

Must Read of the Week

• Monthly report on Bank Performance in Slovenia (author: Bank of Slovenia). Available at: https://bankaslovenije.blob.core.windows.net/publication-files/mi_februar-2021_en.pdf

Comment: Year-on-year growth in loans to the non-banking sector had slowed sharply by the end of last year. December’s rate of 0.2% was the lowest of the last four years. The growth in loans to the non-banking sector was driven primarily by growth in housing loans and loans to non-residents.

Forecast of the Week

• Feb 21 Economic Sentiment Index in Slovenia: + 2.6 p. p. m-o-m

Comment: Removal of lockdown measures in retail and services as the most important factor influencing the expectations in businesses.

Quote of the Week

“An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.” (Laurence J. Peter)