Release date 23 July 2021
The slowing down of vaccination dynamics around the world poses a challenge due to a possible new global wave of infection
According to the latest data from the New York Times, 3.69 billion doses of vaccines have already been used in the world (48 per 100 people). For most vaccines, two doses are required for immunity. At the top of the scale are Malta (71% of the population vaccinated with two doses) and Iceland (70%). Among the world's major economies, the United Kingdom (54%), China (53%), Spain (51%), Canada (51%) and the United States (49%) are also at the top. In Slovenia, the share of people already received 2 jabs currently stands at 37%, which is close to France, the Czech Republic and Sweden. More at: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html
At the beginning of July, the traffic of trucks on Slovenian motorways was close to the comparable level in 2019, while the lag in electricity consumption (-3%) is decreasing with gradually increasing activity in the tourism part of the economy. Compared to the comparable week of 2019, most Slovenia’s trading partners recorded lower electricity consumption (Austria by 1%, Croatia by 3%, France and Italy by 6%), except for Germany, which had roughly the same consumption. In June, for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, industrial electricity consumption reached the level of the same period in 2019 (+1.2%, in May -2.1%), while business consumption (smaller scale use of services companies) was slightly behind this level (-3.6%), but less than a month earlier (in May: -8.7%). Household consumption of electricity was higher by 1.7%. In cultural, entertainment and sports services, sales were still much lower than in the same period in 2019 due to the continuation of certain business restrictions (floor area per person, PCT requirements)
The floods in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands did not significantly affect the operation of industrial companies along the Rhine. Local trade and tourism have suffered a greater economic cost. Damaged property insurance and the economic strength of countries are likely to even contribute to the faster growth of these economies, as destroyed infrastructure does not affect lower GDP and new investments raise it.
Comment/Abstract: Their analysis of Covid’s impact on global trade reveals three key trends. First, the pandemic affected services trade more than goods trade. Second, the impact of the Covid shock on trade was different across countries. In particular, the fall in Chinese trade was much smaller than in other regions. Finally, the pandemic has had a significant impact on shipping costs, which have increased by around 350% since May 2020.
GDP, EU-27, Q2 2021/Q1 2021 (Eurostat): +1.4%
Comment: After a 0.3% quarterly drop in Q1 2021 (may be subject to revision), we expect a 1.4% growth in Q2 2021 GDP in EU-27 (current Reuters median stands at +1.5% with low estimate at+0.8% and high at +2.2%)
“Who needs theory when you have so much information? But this is categorically the wrong attitude to take toward forecasting, especially in a field like economics where the data is so noisy.” (Nate Silver)
More information at: bojan.ivanc@gzs.si
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