The economic climate in Slovenia improved as expected in February 2022, mainly due to the predominant removal of restrictions that negatively affected some service activities (tourism, travel, sports, culture). It was 1.2 percentage points higher on a monthly basis (we expected an increase of 0.3 percentage points) and 10.1 percentage points higher on an annual basis. The monthly change in the sentiment indicator was positively influenced by higher values of consumer confidence indicators (by 0.6 percentage points), in services (by 0.5 percentage points) and in manufacturing (by 0.2 percentage points). The impact of confidence indicators in retail trade and construction was negative, but the impact was small (0.1 percentage point each).

Gospodarska klima v Sloveniji se je v februarju 2022 pričakovano izboljšala, predvsem zaradi pretežnega umika omejitev s storitvenih dejavnostih. Na mesečni ravni je bila višja za 1,2 odstotne točke (pričakovali smo dvig za 0,3 točke) in na letni ravni za 10,1 odstotne točke. Pozitivno so na mesečno spremembo vrednosti kazalnika gospodarske klime vplivale višje vrednosti kazalnikov zaupanja med potrošniki (za 0,6 odstotne točke), v storitvenih dejavnostih (za 0,5 odstotne točke) in v predelovalnih dejavnostih (za 0,2 odstotne točke). Vpliv kazalnikov zaupanja v trgovini na drobno in v gradbeništvu je bil negativen, vendar je bil vpliv majhen (vsak za 0,1 odstotne točke).

Consumer confidence indicator was 3 percentage points higher on a monthly basis in February 2022, which was quite in line with our expectations (growth of 2 points). The rise in the confidence indicator was due to more optimistic consumer expectations regarding the economic situation in the country (by 8 percentage points) and the financial situation in households (by 7 percentage points). In our opinion, this is due to expectations of the withdrawal of the remaining containment measures as well as expectations of continuing wage growth.

Vrednost kazalnika zaupanja potrošnikov je bila v februarju 2022 na mesečni ravni za 3 odstotne točke višja, kar je bilo precej skladno z našimi pričakovanji (rast v višini 2 točk). Dvig vrednosti kazalnika zaupanja na mesečni ravni so povzročila bolj optimistična pričakovanja potrošnikov glede gospodarskega stanja v državi (za 8 odstotnih točk) in finančnega stanja v gospodinjstvih (za 7 odstotnih točk). To je po naši oceni posledica pričakovanj o umiku preostalih zajezitvenih ukrepov kot tudi pričakovanj o rasti plač.

Vabimo vas, da izkoristite brezplačni dostop do vsebin Analitike GZS (do 15. 2. 2022). Vsebujejo gradiva o tekočih makroekonomskih trendih in napovedih ekonomskega okolja za Slovenijo in tujino.

The total value of industrial production was higher for the fifth month in a row. In December 2021 it was higher by 1.1% compared to November. It was higher in manufacturing and mining (by 1.1% and 16.0%, respectively) and lower in electricity, gas and steam supply sector, mainly due to poorer hydrology (by 2.4%). Growth surprised us, especially after the already strong growth in November (+ 2.8% compared to October, based on seasonally adjusted data) and compared to the usual situation in this month in the last few years. We expected a moderate, 0.3% drop. Compared to the level of industrial production in December 2020, it was higher by 11.9% and compared to December 2019 by 10.3%. Despite the growth of production in manufacturing (+1.1% compared to November), turnover in December decreased by 0.5%, which is related to the higher growth in stocks of finished products.

Skupna vrednost industrijske proizvodnje je bila peti mesec zapored višja, in sicer je bila v decembru 2021 za 1,1 % višja kot v mesecu pred tem. V predelovalnih dejavnostih in rudarstvu je bila višja (za 1,1 % oz. za 16,0 %), v dejavnosti oskrbe z električno energijo, plinom in paro pa nižja, predvsem zaradi slabše hidrologije (za 2,4 %). Rast nas je presenetila, še posebej po krepki rasti v novembru (+2,8 % glede na oktober) in glede na običajne razmere v tem mesecu v zadnjih nekaj letih. Pričakovali smo namreč zmeren, 0,3-odstotni padec. Gledano po tehnološki zahtevnosti proizvodnje je presenetila mesečna rast proizvodnje v visoko tehnoloških dejavnostih (+51,3 %) kot tudi v nizko tehnoloških (+18,5 %).

Januarja 2022 se je rast cene v območju evra (HICP metodologija) presenetljivo še povečala (srednja ocena na Reutersu: +4,4 % glede na januar 2021), in sicer za 5,1 % (decembra so bile cene medletno višje za 5,0 %). Naša napoved je bila med 41 institucijami med najbolj natančnimi (5,2 %), kljub temu da je bila najvišja. Tako velik faktor napake osrednja ocena ni beležila že dolgo (institucije smo napovedi oddale do 26. januarja 2022), kar je posledica precejšnjih razlik v modelih prenosa cen surovin in energentov na končne cene blaga in storitev. Januarja 2022 je bila medletna rast cen najvišja v Litvi (+12,2 %), Estoniji (+11,7 %), na Slovaškem (+8,5 %) in v Belgiji (+8,5 %). Glede na predhodni mesec (december 2021) so bile cene višje za 0,3 %. Cene energentov (predvsem električne energije, zemeljskega plina, tudi nafte) so bile višje za 6 %, medtem ko so se cene industrijskih proizvodov celo presenetljivo znižale (za 2 %). Razlog za padec teh cen v tem trenutku ni jasen (podrobni podatki niso na voljo). Cene storitev so bile nespremenjene, cene hrane, alkohola in tobaka pa so bile v povprečju višje za 1,1 %.

In January 2022, consumer price growth in the euro area (HICP methodology) increased more than expected (median change on Reuters: +4.4% compared to January 2021), that is by 5.1% (in December prices were up by 5% year on year). Our forecast was among the most accurate among the 41 institutions (5.2%), despite being the highest. The central assessment did not record such a large error for a long time (institutions submitted forecasts until 26 January 2022), which is due to significant differences in the models of transferring raw material and energy prices to final prices of goods and services. In January 2022, year-on-year price growth was highest in Lithuania (+12.2%), Estonia (+11.7%), Slovakia (+8.5%) and Belgium (+8.5%).