Weekly Economic Highlights: June data suggest good performance of Slovenian economy in H1

Weekly Economic Highlights: June data suggest good performance of Slovenian economy in H1

Industrial production increased by 1.7% m-o-m in June, according to original data (+3.1% y-o-y), which was mainly due to the growth of in manufacturing (+2% m-o-m; +6% y-o-y). As it is usual for industrial production to increase in June compared to May, changes based on seasonally adjusted data were different. Thus, IP fell by 0.2% m-o-m, of which by 0.6% in manufacturing activities (92% of total IP). For the second consecutive month, drop was high in mining (7% in May as well as in June).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Stagnant world’s industrial production

Weekly Economic Highlights: Stagnant world’s industrial production

June data on trade of goods was mainly due to rising prices and higher turnover of trade goods that were not manufactured in Slovenia, as well as higher turnover (imports and exports) of energy products. June’s exports of goods (EUR 5.3 billion; more than EUR 1 billion above our estimate) were 57% higher y-o-y, while imports (EUR 4.8 billion) were 40% higher. Trade balance was positive in June. It amounted to EUR 0.5 billion, while a deficit was noted in all the previous five months of the year. This was due to higher exports of pharmaceutical products in Slovenia (part of them were stocked in Slovenia for some months), which influenced increased imports in the previous months. Exports of goods in the H1 were almost a third higher y-o-y (it amounted to EUR 25.5 billion), while imports increased by almost half (to EUR 27.7 billion). The deficit in goods trade in this period amounted to EUR 2.2 billion, and the export-import coverage was 92.0%.

Weekly economic highlights: US economy entered a recession, which is purely technical in nature

Weekly economic highlights: US economy entered a recession, which is purely technical in nature

US GDP shrank by 0.9% on an annualized rate in Q2 (this is not comparable to the year-over-year change as we know it in Europe), while it was down 1.6% in Q1. The drop was the result of reduced inventories (mainly at general department stores and motor vehicle dealers), investment in housing construction, lower federal and state consumption (lower needs due to the end of pandemic). Lower stocks had an impact of as much as 2 p.p. on lower GDP (than it would otherwise be), and housing investments for 0.7 p.p. in addition. Analysts had expected growth of 0.4% of GDP. On the other hand, household consumption increased, as did exports, which are actually key components of quality economic growth.

Weekly economic highlights:  Synchronous collapse of leading indicators among developed economies

Weekly economic highlights: Synchronous collapse of leading indicators among developed economies

The economic climate index worsened as expected in July (it fell by 1.7 index point to -1.1) and is now slightly below the long-term average, which reflects the slowdown of economic dynamics, and above all negative expectations of consumers and partly of manufacturing sector regarding business conditions in the coming months. The common denominator of these challenges is the high prices of energy products and raw materials, which reduce the disposable income of households. In manufacturing, the added concern is greater due to the danger of reductions in natural gas flows.

Weekly economic highlights:  Pharmaceuticals and electronic industry with high growth since the beginning of the year

Weekly economic highlights: Pharmaceuticals and electronic industry with high growth since the beginning of the year

Slovenia’s industrial production increased by 0.8% in May (as in the euro area), which was more than our estimate (+0.2%) and faster than in April (+0.4%). Although this data is less reliable, it nevertheless shows that solid data (data showing revenues, production) in the first half of the year has not deteriorated significantly. Production in manufacturing increased by only 0.2%. Sector of electricity, gas and steam supply contributed the most to the monthly growth, as it increased production by 5.1%. In mining, production fell by 7.7%, which mainly reflects volatile changes in the amount of mined lignite at Premogovnik Velenje. On a yearly basis, industrial production in the first five months was higher by 3.5%, of which in mining by 23% and in manufacturing by 5.1%. In the supply of electricity, gas and steam, it was lower by one-sixth, which reflects poor hydrology and thus low level of electricity production in hydro power plants.

Weekly economic highlights: China boosting again the global output

Weekly economic highlights: China boosting again the global output

J.P. Morgan Global Composite rose as expected in June (from 51.3 in May to 53.5), largely driven by an increase in manufacturing in China as the bulk of containment measures were lifted in Shanghai. PMI ex. China dropped from 53.9 to 53.1. World production thus increased in June after the decline in April and May. Growth in the service sector was the highest in the last four months. Growth was faster in business services and consumer goods manufacturing, while it moderated in consumer services. In Brazil, India and China, the value of the indicator was the highest (among the 14 large world economies), while its value strengthened the most in Japan, the United Kingdom and Brazil. The Chinese and Russian economies are recovering, while growth has slowed in all other economies. New orders rose for the slowest time since July 2020, while new export orders contracted for the fourth consecutive month. Source: S&P Global

Weekly Economic Highlights: Stronger receipts from foreign tourists

Weekly Economic Highlights: Stronger receipts from foreign tourists

Exports and imports of services increased by about a third y-o-y in the first four months of 2022. Among the most important groups of services, exports of travel (+EUR 390 m), transport (+EUR 205 m), other business services (+EUR 95 m; intellectual services) and telecommunications, computer and information services (+EUR 64 m) increased the most. Exports of construction services remained unchanged.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Growing challenges of rising energy and raw material prices for domestic businesses

Weekly Economic Highlights: Growing challenges of rising energy and raw material prices for domestic businesses

First estimates on the performance of private sector in the Q1 2022 showed that companies were not able to fully transfer higher prices of raw materials and energy into final prices, as gross margin decreased by 3 percentage points q-o-q to 22% (measured as share of value added in sales). It was at this level in 2018. In mining (-8 p. p.), energy (-10 p. p.) and in service activities (finance, professional, scientific and technical activities, healthcare), the declines were the largest. In manufacturing and trade, two sectors that otherwise generate the highest nominal added value and employ the most people, the gross margin fell by 1 p. p. Accounting for this fact it may sound odd how Slovenia’s was able to record positive GDP growth in the Q1 2022. This can be explained by high sales growth, which stems from price growth, which rose nominally much more than value added. But despite that real value added increased, albeit at lower pace. Despite the decline in gross margin, the share of labor costs in value added fell further (to 57% from 58% in the previous quarter), which means that labor costs grew more slowly than value added. The mentioned data does not provide other, quantitatively useful data. Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia

Weekly Economic Highlights: Strong growth in trade of goods reflects high growth in consumption and investment as well as in prices

Weekly Economic Highlights: Strong growth in trade of goods reflects high growth in consumption and investment as well as in prices

The dynamics of trade in goods remained at a high level in April as well. Contrary to expectations, it even intensified. April exports of goods (EUR 4.2 billion; our estimate: EUR 3.9 billion) were almost EUR 1 billion higher than in the same month last year, while imports (EUR 4.7 billion) were EUR 1.4 billion higher. Year-on-year, exports of goods grew by 29% (24% in the first four months) and imports by 43% (48% in the first four months). The trade balance (difference between exports and imports of goods) remained negative in April (-EUR 570 million) and increased to EUR 2.2 billion in the first four months of the current year, which is extremely high relative to GDP (12% of GDP). In the coming months, we expect a slowdown in private consumption growth, as well as the effect of higher exports due to higher prices of industrial products, so we estimate that the monthly deficit will decrease dynamically. Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia

The forward-looking indicators in May show a continuation of the moderate growth in the EA-19

The forward-looking indicators in May show a continuation of the moderate growth in the EA-19

As expected, the economic climate in Slovenia decreased slightly in May (-1.4 percentage points compared to April, our estimate: -1.5 p.p.). Change was negatively affected by fall in in manufacturing confidence (-0.9 p.p.) and consumer sentiment (-0.7 p.p.). The effects of services and construction indicators were positive (each contributed +0.2 p.p.). The confidence indicator in retail trade had no effect. Compared to May 2021, the value of the economic climate indicator was lower by 2.8 p.p. Compared to the long-term average, optimism was highest in construction (+36 p.p.), retail trade (+16 p.p.) and services (+8 p.p.). In manufacturing it remained higher, but only by 2 p.p.

Weekly Economic Highlights:  Slovenia’s Q1 2022 GDP with high growth

Weekly Economic Highlights: Slovenia’s Q1 2022 GDP with high growth

Slovenia's GDP in the Q1 2022 was 0.8% higher in real terms than in the previous quarter (seasonally and calendar adjusted), which is a significant slowdown compared to the growth we have been accustomed to since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, growth can be described as extremely high, as it followed a 5.3% quarterly growth in the Q4 2021, and such growth is usually followed by a decline. Growth of 0.8% was also higher than in the EU-27 (+0.4%) and four times higher than our estimate (+0.2%). Quarterly growth was high in many European countries (Romania: + 5.2%, Portugal: + 2.6%, Austria: + 2.5%, Poland: + 2.4%, Latvia: + 2.1%) and that shows the March invasion of Ukraine has not yet had a major economic impact. The key reason was the strong growth in the European service sector.

Weekly Economic Highlights: April’s CPI growth in Slovenia well above our expectations

Weekly Economic Highlights: April’s CPI growth in Slovenia well above our expectations

April’s consumer prices (CPI) increased by 2.6% in one month, which was much higher than we expected (+0.9%). Higher prices of food (by 2.9%) and holiday packages (by 19.2%) contributed the most to rising monthly inflation, 0.5 percentage points each. In the group of food, prices of oil and fats increased the most (by 7%), followed by meat (by 6.3%), vegetables (by 5.2%) and bread and cereal products (by 2.9%). Electricity was also more expensive than in the previous month (by 11.6%), contributing 0.3 percentage points to inflation. Rising prices of clothing and footwear (by 3.8%) increased headline inflation by additional 0.3 percentage points. 0.2 percentage points were added by more expensive liquid fuels (by 20.4%).

Weekly Economic Highlights:  April’s economic sentiment above expectations

Weekly Economic Highlights: April’s economic sentiment above expectations

The economic sentiment indicator in Slovenia stood at 4.3 percentage points in April and was 2.7 percentage points (p.p.) higher than in the previous month (1.6). Indicator was higher due to higher value of confidence indicators in services (by 1.3 p.p.), consumer sentiments (by 1.1 p.p.) and retail trade (by 0.6 p.p.). The impact of confidence indicators in manufacturing and construction was slightly negative (by 0.1 and 0.2 p.p., respectively). Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia.

Weekly Economic Highlights:  The pessimism in Europe overshadowed by the optimism in the United States

Weekly Economic Highlights: The pessimism in Europe overshadowed by the optimism in the United States

The ZEW indicator measures the sentiment of CFOs in the real economy. In the euro area, the April assessment of the current economic situation in the euro area fell again (-6.6 points), in Germany even more, by 9.4. It also declined in the US (-3.8), but US CFOs were still much more optimistic than others. In China, too, the situation has deteriorated sharply (-14.6 points), mainly due to a higher share of CFOs who assessed the situation as worse.

Weekly Economic Highlights: The service part of the economy continues with high growth

Weekly Economic Highlights: The service part of the economy continues with high growth

The composite PMI in the euro area (the survey was conducted between 11 and 28 March) fell slightly in March (from 55.5 to 54.9). The service part of the economy, on the other hand, still experienced increased demand, as the services PMI remained high (slight increase from 55.5 to 55.6). In the European services sector, growth was highest in France (up from 55.5 to 57.4) and in Germany (up from 55.8 to 56.1), while in Italy it fell from 52.8 to 52.1.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Consumer prices do now always follow the same direction

Weekly Economic Highlights: Consumer prices do now always follow the same direction

March consumer prices (CPI) in Slovenia rose by 5.4% on annual level, which is an extremely high decline after the February growth (6.9%) and stems from a temporary, 3-month reduction in excise duties on electricity energy and cap on retail fuel as well as due to the high effect of the base (in March 2021, prices were already much higher than in February 2021, which means the effect of a growing base over time contributed to reduced growth as well). It is interesting to note that the March sub indicator within consumer confidence showed that this month a record share of households estimated that price growth will be even higher in the future. We can say that they were wrong, probably at least for the months of March, April and May 2022.

Weekly Economic Highlights:   Real economy in March less worried than initially expected

Weekly Economic Highlights: Real economy in March less worried than initially expected

The composite PMI index in the euro area decreased slightly in March (the survey was conducted between 11 and 22 March) (from 55.4 to 54.5), with a decline in the service indicator (decreases from 55.5 to 54.8) lower than in manufacturing (down from 58.2 to 57). The composite indicator fell slightly from the February highest value in the last five years, which was the result of the withdrawal of containment measures across Europe. However, index value was the second highest since November 2021 and well above the long-term average. Service sectors saw growth in demand due to higher consumption of their services, and the war in Ukraine and sanctions weakened the outlook for demand for goods.

Weekly Economic Highlights:  Fear indicators rose as expected

Weekly Economic Highlights: Fear indicators rose as expected

The OECD estimates that global economic growth is expected to be reduced by 1 percentage point in 2022 due to uncertainties related to the war in Ukraine, while average inflation is expected to be an additional 2.5 percentage points higher, mainly as a result of rising energy and raw materials prices and a strong dollar. In the euro area, economic growth is expected to be 1.4 percentage points lower and inflation 2 percentage points higher. The direct economic importance of Russia and Ukraine is small in the global economy (2% of world GDP), and financial ties with other countries are small, which means limited risk. FDI of foreign companies in Russia and Russian companies abroad represent only 1 to 1.5% of global FDI.

Weekly Economic Highlights: The first sentiment indicators in the real economy already indicate the negative impact of geopolitics

Weekly Economic Highlights: The first sentiment indicators in the real economy already indicate the negative impact of geopolitics

In January, industrial production remained almost unchanged to December (seasonally adjusted) and was higher only by 0.1%. Quite surprising, growth was highest in electricity, gas and steam supply (+18%). It decreased by 0.9% in manufacturing (a modest growth of 0.5% was expected according to our view) and in mining and quarrying by 0.6%. Most of the industrial production in Slovenia is represented by manufacturing (90 %), where revenues nevertheless increased by 3.1% (despite drop in industrial production). The decline in production in manufacturing was largely influenced by the decline in production in durable consumer goods (-14.7%), where we estimate that it due to falling production of pharmaceuticals. In production of investment goods (machinery and equipment, semi-finished products), production grew by 0.9% but revenues fell by 5.3%. This was also due to slightly higher inventory growth (+3%).

Weekly Economic Highlights: The synchronous withdrawal of most containment measures raises optimism in service activities

Weekly Economic Highlights: The synchronous withdrawal of most containment measures raises optimism in service activities

The economic climate in Slovenia improved as expected in February 2022, mainly due to the predominant removal of restrictions that negatively affected some service activities (tourism, travel, sports, culture). It was 1.2 percentage points higher on a monthly basis (we expected an increase of 0.3 percentage points) and 10.1 percentage points higher on an annual basis. The monthly change in the sentiment indicator was positively influenced by higher values of consumer confidence indicators (by 0.6 percentage points), in services (by 0.5 percentage points) and in manufacturing (by 0.2 percentage points). The impact of confidence indicators in retail trade and construction was negative, but the impact was small (0.1 percentage point each).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Slovenian consumers a little less worried about future prices

Weekly Economic Highlights: Slovenian consumers a little less worried about future prices

Consumer confidence indicator was 3 percentage points higher on a monthly basis in February 2022, which was quite in line with our expectations (growth of 2 points). The rise in the confidence indicator was due to more optimistic consumer expectations regarding the economic situation in the country (by 8 percentage points) and the financial situation in households (by 7 percentage points). In our opinion, this is due to expectations of the withdrawal of the remaining containment measures as well as expectations of continuing wage growth.

Weekly Economic Highlights: December’s industry data surprised even the biggest optimists

Weekly Economic Highlights: December’s industry data surprised even the biggest optimists

The total value of industrial production was higher for the fifth month in a row. In December 2021 it was higher by 1.1% compared to November. It was higher in manufacturing and mining (by 1.1% and 16.0%, respectively) and lower in electricity, gas and steam supply sector, mainly due to poorer hydrology (by 2.4%). Growth surprised us, especially after the already strong growth in November (+ 2.8% compared to October, based on seasonally adjusted data) and compared to the usual situation in this month in the last few years. We expected a moderate, 0.3% drop. Compared to the level of industrial production in December 2020, it was higher by 11.9% and compared to December 2019 by 10.3%. Despite the growth of production in manufacturing (+1.1% compared to November), turnover in December decreased by 0.5%, which is related to the higher growth in stocks of finished products.

Weekly Economic Highlights: January’s consumer price growth in the euro area above expectations

Weekly Economic Highlights: January’s consumer price growth in the euro area above expectations

In January 2022, consumer price growth in the euro area (HICP methodology) increased more than expected (median change on Reuters: +4.4% compared to January 2021), that is by 5.1% (in December prices were up by 5% year on year). Our forecast was among the most accurate among the 41 institutions (5.2%), despite being the highest. The central assessment did not record such a large error for a long time (institutions submitted forecasts until 26 January 2022), which is due to significant differences in the models of transferring raw material and energy prices to final prices of goods and services. In January 2022, year-on-year price growth was highest in Lithuania (+12.2%), Estonia (+11.7%), Slovakia (+8.5%) and Belgium (+8.5%).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Economic climate improved as expected

Weekly Economic Highlights: Economic climate improved as expected

The economic climate in Slovenia improved slightly in January 2022 (from 5.1 to 5.7), which was slightly less than we expected (growth by 1 index point) but on the basis of other confidence indicators (which are part of the economic climate) as we thought. Confidence in services (by 0.5 percentage points) and retail trade (by 0.1 percentage points) contributed to the increase in the value of the indicator on a monthly basis. Indicators of confidence in manufacturing, construction (we expected the growth of these two) and among consumers had no impact on the change.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Oil prices are once again increasing price pressures

Weekly Economic Highlights: Oil prices are once again increasing price pressures

After the November’s (USD 80.8) and December’s (USD 74.3) fall in oil prices, it became clear that this was a temporary situation. The price of a barrel of Brent oil has risen above USD 88 per barrel, to the highest value in seven years, which is close to our estimate for the average of the year (USD 85), while the majority of institutions estimated a few months ago that the price will fall to around 70 to 75 USD. The acceleration in price was due to an attack on storage facilities in the United Arab Emirates. Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and concerns about sufficient spare capacity in OPEC countries have also contributed to the high rise. Rising oil prices will once again contribute to rising year-on-year inflation in all countries.

Weekly Economic Highlights: November’s growth in industrial production well above expectations

Weekly Economic Highlights: November’s growth in industrial production well above expectations

The total value of industrial production in Slovenia in November 2021 was 2.8% higher than in October 2021, which was significantly higher than we expected (no change compared to October). It was higher in manufacturing and mining (by 3.2% and 2.6%, respectively), and lower in energy (by 2.9%), mainly due to poorer rainfalls. Compared to November 2020, it was higher by 10.1% and compared to November 2019 by 8.7%.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Trade with the world higher at the end of the year 2021

Weekly Economic Highlights: Trade with the world higher at the end of the year 2021

According to first estimate, Slovenia exported goods worth EUR 3.7 billion in November 2021, which was almost a quarter more than in the same month last year. In the first 11 months of the past year, growth was 19% (relative growth was the same in EU countries as in other countries), but of course the nominal increase in exports on the EU market was correspondingly much higher. In the autumn forecast, we estimated that the growth of exports in 2021 will be 12%. In same month, EUR 4.17 billion worth of goods were imported (26% more).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Prospects for CPI growth in Slovenia in 2022 and 2023 rising above 2%

Weekly Economic Highlights: Prospects for CPI growth in Slovenia in 2022 and 2023 rising above 2%

December estimates of economic growth (GDP) for Slovenia (compiled by Consensus Economics) for 2021 strengthened despite the weak growth in the Q3 2021 (they rose for FY from 6.0% in November to 6.3% in December, which is also our central estimate). In the latest issue of the Slovenian Economic Mirror, IMAD estimated that economic growth in 2021 is likely to be 0.5 to 1 percentage point higher than its own autumn estimate (therefore between 6.6% and 7.1%). On the other hand, the average estimate of independent contributors for GDP growth for 2022 decreased slightly (from 3.9% to 3.8%, our estimate: +4.4%, December OECD estimate: +5.4%). Adjustments for inflation were not minor. The average inflation estimate (CPI) rose from 1.6% to 1.8% (for 2021) and from 2.1% to 2.4% (for 2022). In 2023, average inflation is expected to be 2.1% (previous month's estimate: 2.0%). Expectations in industrial production remained unchanged (growth at + 4.8%; our estimate: +3.8%).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Pressures in supply chains continue to affect the rise in producer prices

Weekly Economic Highlights: Pressures in supply chains continue to affect the rise in producer prices

Global sector PMI in November remained relatively high. 19 out of 21 sectors recorded business growth. Activity in finance (insurance companies, other financial institutions, excluding banks), transportation, industrial services and software development, banks and the production of technological equipment strengthened the most. The decline was present in the metals and minerals sector and in the automotive and auto parts industries, but the decline in the latter was relatively small. Price pressures continued to be high globally. They were particularly high for input prices in technological equipment, building materials, the chemical industry and the paper industry.

Weekly Economic Highlights: November’s economic sentiment defied the poor epidemiological picture

Weekly Economic Highlights: November’s economic sentiment defied the poor epidemiological picture

Confidence indicators in manufacturing (+2 percentage points compared to October) and retail trade (+7 percentage points) in Slovenia increased in November, while in construction (-1 percentage points) and services (-1 percentage points) they decreased. The economic sentiment index (ESI) was thus 0.8 percentage points higher in November than in October, which is higher than our expectations (we expected a drop of 1.7 percentage points). It was also higher than the long-term average (by 4.4 percentage points).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Transport infrastructure crucial for the growth of construction

Weekly Economic Highlights: Transport infrastructure crucial for the growth of construction

Compared to August, the value of construction works (in real terms) rose more than expected in September (+0.9% - expected vs. + 8.5% - preliminary reading). The uncertainty in the forecast of this aggregate is high (the monthly change is difficult to estimate reliably, subsequent revisions of the data are high).

Weekly Economic Highlights: The service part of the world economy goes into high gear

Weekly Economic Highlights: The service part of the world economy goes into high gear

The October value of the Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), calculated by J.P. Morgan, increased slightly (from 53.3 to 54.5) as optimism in the service sectors of the global economy rose sharply (from 53.8 to 55.6), while the manufacturing PMI remained almost unchanged (it grew from 54.1 to 54.3). In the case of manufacturing PMI, the estimate of current production, as well as new orders, decreased slightly (meaning slightly lower growth than in previous months).

Weekly Economic Highlights: GDP in the EU-27 grew 4 times faster than in the USA in the Q3 2021

Weekly Economic Highlights: GDP in the EU-27 grew 4 times faster than in the USA in the Q3 2021

GDP in the EU-27 strengthened by 2.1% in the Q3 2021 and by 2.2% in the EA-19 compared to the previous quarter, which was above our expectations (2% for EA-19). According to provisional data for 11 economies, representing 91% of EU-27 GDP, growth accelerated in Spain (from 1% in the 2nd quarter to 2%) and France (from 1.3% to 3.0%), while it slowed in Germany (from 1.9% to 1.8%).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Declining export orders in manufacturing depressed the economic climate index

Weekly Economic Highlights: Declining export orders in manufacturing depressed the economic climate index

October’s reading of economic sentiment index (2.2 points) decreased by 2.5 percentage points compared to September what is more than we expected (a rather modest decrease from 4.7 to 4.0). The monthly change in the index was negatively affected mainly by the confidence indicator in manufacturing (by 2.0 percentage points), the consumer confidence indicator (by 0.7 percentage points) and the confidence indicator in retail trade (by 0.4 percentage points).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Pandemic having less impact on services

Weekly Economic Highlights: Pandemic having less impact on services

As expected, exports of goods fell from EUR 3.5 billion (July figure) to EUR 2.8 billion in August, which is mainly due to the seasonal effect (manufacturing company usually have collective holidays in August). Compared to August 2020, exports were a quarter higher.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Optimism remained high in services and construction

Weekly Economic Highlights: Optimism remained high in services and construction

In September 2021, the economic sentiment/climate was 1.8 percentage points lower on a monthly basis (our estimate: -0.9%), while it was still 8.5 percentage points higher on an annual basis. Its change was negatively affected by confidence indicators in manufacturing (by 1.3 percentage points), in retail trade (by 0.7 percentage points) and among consumers (by 0.2 percentage points). The effects of confidence indicators in services and construction were positive (each contributing 0.2 percentage points).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Economic growth in Slovenia in 2021 probably above 6%

Weekly Economic Highlights: Economic growth in Slovenia in 2021 probably above 6%

As expected, in the autumn forecast, IMAD (Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development) significantly improved its estimate for Slovenia’s real GDP growth in 2021, from 4.6% to 6.1%, which is one of the historically largest positive adjustments in terms of growth prospects.

Weekly Economic Highlights: In five industrial sectors, the growth of industrial production was above 25% y-o-y

Weekly Economic Highlights: In five industrial sectors, the growth of industrial production was above 25% y-o-y

Compared to the previous month, July’s growth of industrial production was negative (-1.7% vs our estimate: -1.0%), while year-on-year (compared to July 2020) it was 8.9% higher. As expected, growth slowed down (it was 15% higher year on year in the 1H 2021) to 13% in the seven months of 2021. In mining, industrial production was down 2.6% year on year in the same period, in energy by 1.5%, but in manufacturing it was higher by about 15%.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Improving exports of goods in final months of 2020 but a reduction of 10% on a yearly level likely

Weekly Economic Highlights: Improving exports of goods in final months of 2020 but a reduction of 10% on a yearly level likely

November data on exports (1 week ahead of Eurostat release) from Slovenian Statistical Office shows that trends have improved in final months, what was expected based on improving sentiment in manufacturing as well as anecdotal data from main companies. Y-o-y change (Nov. 20/Nov. 19) was positive (+0.9%; +EUR 30 m), for both group of markets (exports to EU: +EUR 20 m and exports to non-EU: +EUR 10 m).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Heterogenous trends in key global manufacturing hubs

Weekly Economic Highlights: Heterogenous trends in key global manufacturing hubs

The global production index JP Morgan Global Manufacturing showed that the sentiment in global manufacturing at the end of July (55.4) was quite similar to that in June (55.5), or that the rise in infections in some major countries did not contribute to deteriorating expectations of future or current operations. All three main types of manufacturing recorded growth, the slowest the category of consumer goods products, where growth accelerated. The highest sentiment in manufacturing was in the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, USA, while on the other hand, China (50.3) and Japan (53) were well below the average. Asia’s emerging markets were particularly weak, with activity in Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Myanmar even declining.

Weekly Economic Highlights: In the Q2 21, GDP growth in the EU-27 exceeded expectations, in the US below

Weekly Economic Highlights: In the Q2 21, GDP growth in the EU-27 exceeded expectations, in the US below

GDP in the EU-27 increased by 1.9% in the Q2 21 compared to the Q1 21 (in the EA-19 by 2%, Reuters Consensus: +1.5%), which was more than we expected (1.4%). Among the 11 countries for which data are already available, the highest growth was recorded in Portugal (+ 4.9%, where, by the way, the fall in GDP was high in the Q1 21, at -3.2%) and in Austria (+4.3%). Growth was also high in Latvia (+3.7%) and Spain (+ 2.8%). GDP in Europe's largest economy - Germany, strengthened by 1.5% (after a 1.8% drop in the 1st quarter of 2021), growth in France was disappointing (0.9% after unchanged growth in the Q1 2021).

Weekly Economic Highlights: The slowing down of vaccination dynamics around the world poses a challenge due to a possible new global wave of infection

Weekly Economic Highlights: The slowing down of vaccination dynamics around the world poses a challenge due to a possible new global wave of infection

According to the latest data from the New York Times, 3.69 billion doses of vaccines have already been used in the world (48 per 100 people). For most vaccines, two doses are required for immunity. At the top of the scale are Malta (71% of the population vaccinated with two doses) and Iceland (70%). Among the world's major economies, the United Kingdom (54%), China (53%), Spain (51%), Canada (51%) and the United States (49%) are also at the top. In Slovenia, the share of people already received 2 jabs currently stands at 37%, which is close to France, the Czech Republic and Sweden.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Continuous upgrades in economic growth estimates is accompanied by the first signals of the 4th wave

Weekly Economic Highlights: Continuous upgrades in economic growth estimates is accompanied by the first signals of the 4th wave

The European Commission (EC) published its summer forecast on Wednesday, 7 July, raising the estimate for GDP growth in the euro area for 2021 from 4.3% to 4.8% (for 2022 from 4.4% to 4.5%) as well as for inflation (from 1.7% to 1.9% in 2021 and from 1.3% to 1.4% in 2022).

Weekly Economic Highlights: The beginning of the Calendar Summer in the Western Hemisphere Raises the Heat in the Economy

Weekly Economic Highlights: The beginning of the Calendar Summer in the Western Hemisphere Raises the Heat in the Economy

In May 2021, 41% more building permits were issued than in the same month last year, when administrative units performed only urgent matters. Compared to May 2019 (before the pandemic), 4% more were issued in May 2021, of which 17% more for residential buildings and 5% less for non-residential buildings.

Weekly Economic Highlights: The Metal and the Electrical Industry - the Winners of the Recovery

Weekly Economic Highlights: The Metal and the Electrical Industry - the Winners of the Recovery

Data on sales by individual manufacturing sectors in the first four months show (pharmacy data are confidential) that revenues were higher compared to the same period in 2019 in the manufacture of other vehicles and vessels (+ 16%), the manufacture of electrical appliances (+ 12%), computers, electronic and optical products (+9%), rubber and plastic products (+9%), manufacture of other machinery and equipment (+8%), wood working and processing (+ 7%), manufacture of fabricated metal products 6%), production of chemicals (+5%), production of furniture (+5%) and in four other activities. Sales were lower in nine sectors.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Slovenian Households Contributed to the Economic Growth in the First Quarter

Weekly Economic Highlights: Slovenian Households Contributed to the Economic Growth in the First Quarter

Gross domestic product (GDP) in Slovenia increased by 1.6% in real terms in the first quarter of 2021 (adjusted for the season and the calendar by 2.3%), which is comparatively the highest growth among EU member states that have already published data on the Eurostat portal. Ex-ante we estimated that the decline would be smaller than the EU-27 average, somewhere around 1%, and we were among the most optimistic.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Profits in ICT Activities Higher, the Largest Losses in Energy

Weekly Economic Highlights: Profits in ICT Activities Higher, the Largest Losses in Energy

A slightly more in-depth look at companies' data for FY2020 reveals that net sales revenues fell by 6.8% in 2020 (EUR -6.9 billion), of which EUR 3.7 billion on the domestic market (-6.5%) and EUR 3.1 billion on foreign markets (-7.3%). Looking at sectoral level, the nominal decline in sales was highest in trade (EUR -2.6 billion) and manufacturing (EUR -1.8 billion), in other miscellaneous activities (EUR -470 million) and in hotels and restaurants. EUR). Sectors that were growing were rare and included construction (EUR +70 million), water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (EUR +16 million).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Financial Figures for 2020 at Company Level Above Expectations

Weekly Economic Highlights: Financial Figures for 2020 at Company Level Above Expectations

On Friday, 21 May, Ajpes already revealed long-awaited data on the financial performance of companies and sole proprietors in 2020. Aggregate revenues of companies fell by 5.7% (of those, exports by 7 %), and that of sole proprietors by 5%, while value added dropped by about 1 %. Lower raw material prices in 2020 and state support measures (subsidies received) were key to ensuring that value added did not shrink.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Re-Opening of Last Service Sectors Taking Place

Weekly Economic Highlights: Re-Opening of Last Service Sectors Taking Place

The number of registered unemployed is still declining (77.1 thousand on 11 May, 2,200 less than at the end of April), which coincides with the relaxation of restrictive measures in the hospitality industry (restaurants, hotels), growth in manufacturing and construction. During the last week of April, the traffic of lorries on Slovenian motorways was 29% higher than in the same period of 2019 (45% for domestic vehicles and 21% for foreign vehicles), when the volume of transport was lower also due to Labour Day holidays with one working day less.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Prospects of a further relaxation of lockdown measures rising

Weekly Economic Highlights: Prospects of a further relaxation of lockdown measures rising

The Employment Service of Slovenia published the latest unofficial data on the number of unemployed on Wednesday, 5 th of May, which we believe is the most important short-term forward-looking indicator for Slovenian economy. Their number is still declining (78,000), with the number of new jobs increasing significantly in the current week (first week of May), which was also pronounced by the previous holiday week (school holidays in the last week of April lowered employment growth in the previous week). Source: Employment Service of the Republic of Slovenia.