KiviNovice

The economic sentiment index (ESI) dropped by 4.5 p.p. m-o-m in September, which was a bigger drop than expected (our estimate: -0.7 p.p.) and thus fell below the long-term average. Decrease of indicator was influenced by all five components: the most by drop in manufacturing confidence (2.5 p.p. contribution to the decrease), followed by services (-1.3 p.p.). Retail trade sentiment had a slightly smaller impact (-0.3 p.p.), as well as consumer sentiment (-0.3 p.p.) and sentiment in construction (-0.2 p.p.). Excluding the pandemic period, the last time the indicator was this low was in April 14. Confidence in manufacturing fell by 7 p.p. m-o-m, in retail trade by 6 p.p., and in services by 5 p.p. In the construction, it fell by 3 p.p. and the consumer confidence decreased by 1 p.p. In services (15), retail trade (15) and construction (13), the indicator remained above the long-term average value, while the consumer confidence indicator (-40) was well below it and the lowest since June 12. In manufacturing (-8), the indicator slipped considerably below the long-term average in recent month.