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Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 18. do 24. junija 2022

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 18. do 24. junija 2022

Consensus Economics, mesečna anketa med neodvisnimi inštitucijami, ki napovedujejo gospodarska gibanja za države, je za Slovenijo v mesecu juniju nekoliko pričakovano dvignil obete za gospodarsko rast v letošnjem letu (+0,4 odstotne točke v 1 mesecu) in celo v letu 2023 (+0,1 odstotne točke), kar je predvsem posledica dveh dejavnikov - okrepitve pričakovanj o dvigu realne rasti potrošnje gospodinjstev (s 5,5 % na 7 % v 2022 in s 2,8 na 3 % v 2023) in pričakovanj o rasti investicij (s 5,1 na 7,5 % v 2022) ter rasti industrijske proizvodnje (s 3,4 % na 3,5 % v 2022 in s 3,0 na 3,1 % v 2023) in s tem realne rasti izvoza blaga. Dvig ocene za leto 2022 v veliki meri izvira iz visokega učinka prenosa in s tem visoke gospodarske rasti v 1. četrtletju (realno skoraj za desetino več). Med državami v vzhodni in južni Evropi so obeti za gospodarsko rast v 2022 višji le še za Poljsko (4,9 %), nekoliko nižji so za Madžarsko (4,5 %). Obeti za rast v prihodnjem letu so se pretežno znižali, z izjemo za Slovenijo, kjer so se zvišali.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Stronger receipts from foreign tourists

Weekly Economic Highlights: Stronger receipts from foreign tourists

Exports and imports of services increased by about a third y-o-y in the first four months of 2022. Among the most important groups of services, exports of travel (+EUR 390 m), transport (+EUR 205 m), other business services (+EUR 95 m; intellectual services) and telecommunications, computer and information services (+EUR 64 m) increased the most. Exports of construction services remained unchanged.

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 11. do 17. junija 2022
Weekly Economic Highlights: Growing challenges of rising energy and raw material prices for domestic businesses

Weekly Economic Highlights: Growing challenges of rising energy and raw material prices for domestic businesses

First estimates on the performance of private sector in the Q1 2022 showed that companies were not able to fully transfer higher prices of raw materials and energy into final prices, as gross margin decreased by 3 percentage points q-o-q to 22% (measured as share of value added in sales). It was at this level in 2018. In mining (-8 p. p.), energy (-10 p. p.) and in service activities (finance, professional, scientific and technical activities, healthcare), the declines were the largest. In manufacturing and trade, two sectors that otherwise generate the highest nominal added value and employ the most people, the gross margin fell by 1 p. p. Accounting for this fact it may sound odd how Slovenia’s was able to record positive GDP growth in the Q1 2022. This can be explained by high sales growth, which stems from price growth, which rose nominally much more than value added. But despite that real value added increased, albeit at lower pace. Despite the decline in gross margin, the share of labor costs in value added fell further (to 57% from 58% in the previous quarter), which means that labor costs grew more slowly than value added. The mentioned data does not provide other, quantitatively useful data. Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 4. do 10. junija 2022

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 4. do 10. junija 2022

Prvi podatki o poslovanju sektorjev v Sloveniji v 1. četrtletju 2022 so pričakovano pokazali, da zasebni sektor ni povsem mogel prenesti višjih cen surovin in energentov v končne cene, saj se je bruto marža glede na predhodno četrtletje znižala za 3 odstotne točke na 22 % (dodana vrednost v prodaji). Nazadnje je bila na takšni ravni v letu 2018. V rudarstvu (-8 o. t.), energetiki (-10 o. t.) in v storitvenih dejavnosti (finance, strokovne, znanstvene in tehnične dejavnosti, zdravstvo) so bili padci največji. V predelovalnih dejavnostih in trgovini, dveh dejavnostih, ki sicer ustvarita najvišjo dodano vrednost in kjer je zaposlenih največ oseb, pa je bruto marža upadla za 1 o. t. Kako smo lahko ob tako visokem padcu bruto marže sploh beležili pozitivno rast BDP v 1. četrtletju, pojasni visoka rast prodaje, ki izvira iz rasti cen, ki je porasla nominalno precej bolj kot dodano vrednost, vendar se je ob tem tudi realna dodana vrednost povečala. Kljub padcu bruto marže se je tako dodana vrednost po naši oceni še vedno realno povečevala.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Strong growth in trade of goods reflects high growth in consumption and investment as well as in prices

Weekly Economic Highlights: Strong growth in trade of goods reflects high growth in consumption and investment as well as in prices

The dynamics of trade in goods remained at a high level in April as well. Contrary to expectations, it even intensified. April exports of goods (EUR 4.2 billion; our estimate: EUR 3.9 billion) were almost EUR 1 billion higher than in the same month last year, while imports (EUR 4.7 billion) were EUR 1.4 billion higher. Year-on-year, exports of goods grew by 29% (24% in the first four months) and imports by 43% (48% in the first four months). The trade balance (difference between exports and imports of goods) remained negative in April (-EUR 570 million) and increased to EUR 2.2 billion in the first four months of the current year, which is extremely high relative to GDP (12% of GDP). In the coming months, we expect a slowdown in private consumption growth, as well as the effect of higher exports due to higher prices of industrial products, so we estimate that the monthly deficit will decrease dynamically. Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 28. maja do 3. junija 2022

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 28. maja do 3. junija 2022

Dinamika trgovinske menjave je v Sloveniji tudi aprila ostala na visoki ravni. Nekoliko nasprotno od pričakovanj, se je celo še okrepila. Aprilski izvoz (4,2 mrd EUR; naša ocena: 3,9 mrd EUR) v letu 2022 je bil za skoraj 1 mrd EUR višji kot v enakem mesecu lani, uvoz (4,7 mrd EUR) pa za 1,4 mrd EUR. Medletno je bila rast izvoza blaga pri 29 % (prve štiri mesece je bila višja za 24 %), uvoza pa pri 43 % (prve štiri mesece je bila višja za 48 %). Trgovinska bilanca (presežek vrednosti uvoza nad izvozom) je aprila ostala negativna (-570 mio EUR) in se je v štirih mesecih tekočega leta povečala na 2,2 mrd EUR, kar je izjemno veliko (12 % BDP). V prihodnjih mesecih pričakujemo upočasnjeno rast zasebne potrošnje ter tudi efekt izvoza višjih cen industrijskih izdelkov, zato ocenjujemo, da se bo mesečni primanjkljaj dinamično zniževal. Vir: Statistični urad RS.

Baltske države - Tekoča ekonomska gibanja v številkah, maj 2022

Baltske države - Tekoča ekonomska gibanja v številkah, maj 2022

Novo četrtletno gradivo "Baltske države - Tekoča ekonomska gibanja v številkah, maj 2022 vsebuje glavne ekonomske in gospodarske kazalce za Baltske države, z napovedmi do leta 2024.

The forward-looking indicators in May show a continuation of the moderate growth in the EA-19

The forward-looking indicators in May show a continuation of the moderate growth in the EA-19

As expected, the economic climate in Slovenia decreased slightly in May (-1.4 percentage points compared to April, our estimate: -1.5 p.p.). Change was negatively affected by fall in in manufacturing confidence (-0.9 p.p.) and consumer sentiment (-0.7 p.p.). The effects of services and construction indicators were positive (each contributed +0.2 p.p.). The confidence indicator in retail trade had no effect. Compared to May 2021, the value of the economic climate indicator was lower by 2.8 p.p. Compared to the long-term average, optimism was highest in construction (+36 p.p.), retail trade (+16 p.p.) and services (+8 p.p.). In manufacturing it remained higher, but only by 2 p.p.

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 21. do 27. maja 2022

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 21. do 27. maja 2022

Sestavljeni PMI za območje evra je v maju po prvi oceni (podatki so bili anketno zbrani med 12. in 20. majem) nekoliko upadel (s 55,8 v aprilu na 54,9), kar je bila posledica nekoliko nižje rasti v storitvah (56,3) in slabših pričakovanj v predelovalnih dejavnostih (54,4), vendar se je ocena tekoče proizvodnje (v maju) izboljšala na 51,2. Na podlagi tega indikatorja je pričakovati tudi v 2. četrtletju zmerno rast proizvodnje v območju evra.