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Weekly Economic Highlights: Optimism remained high in services and construction

Weekly Economic Highlights: Optimism remained high in services and construction

In September 2021, the economic sentiment/climate was 1.8 percentage points lower on a monthly basis (our estimate: -0.9%), while it was still 8.5 percentage points higher on an annual basis. Its change was negatively affected by confidence indicators in manufacturing (by 1.3 percentage points), in retail trade (by 0.7 percentage points) and among consumers (by 0.2 percentage points). The effects of confidence indicators in services and construction were positive (each contributing 0.2 percentage points).

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 18. do 24. septembra 2021

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 18. do 24. septembra 2021

Gospodarska klima je bila septembra 2021 na mesečni ravni za 1,8 odstotne točke nižja (naša ocena: -0,9), na letni ravni pa je bilo še vedno za 8,5 odstotne točke višja. Na njeno spremembo na mesečni ravni so negativno vplivali kazalniki zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih (za 1,3 odstotne točke), v trgovini na drobno (za 0,7 odstotne točke) ter med potrošniki (za 0,2 odstotne točke). Vpliva kazalnikov zaupanja v storitvenih dejavnostih in v gradbeništvu sta bila pozitivna (vsak je prispeval 0,2 odstotne točke).

Weekly Economic Highlights: Economic growth in Slovenia in 2021 probably above 6%

Weekly Economic Highlights: Economic growth in Slovenia in 2021 probably above 6%

As expected, in the autumn forecast, IMAD (Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development) significantly improved its estimate for Slovenia’s real GDP growth in 2021, from 4.6% to 6.1%, which is one of the historically largest positive adjustments in terms of growth prospects.

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 11. do 17. septembra 2021

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 11. do 17. septembra 2021

Povsem pričakovano je UMAR v jesenski napovedi močno izboljšal oceno za realno rast BDP v letu 2021, in sicer s 4,6 % na 6,1 %, kar je eden od zgodovinsko večjih pozitivnih popravkov glede obetov o rasti. Glede na podatke v 1. polletju, ki so sicer začasne narave, to ni presenečenje. Ob tem velja izpostaviti še dvig ocene rasti za leto 2022 (iz 4,4 % na 4,7 %), medtem ko je ocena za leto 2023 ostala nespremenjena (3,3 %).

Weekly Economic Highlights: In five industrial sectors, the growth of industrial production was above 25% y-o-y

Weekly Economic Highlights: In five industrial sectors, the growth of industrial production was above 25% y-o-y

Compared to the previous month, July’s growth of industrial production was negative (-1.7% vs our estimate: -1.0%), while year-on-year (compared to July 2020) it was 8.9% higher. As expected, growth slowed down (it was 15% higher year on year in the 1H 2021) to 13% in the seven months of 2021. In mining, industrial production was down 2.6% year on year in the same period, in energy by 1.5%, but in manufacturing it was higher by about 15%.

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 4. do 10. septembra 2021

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 4. do 10. septembra 2021

Rast slovenske industrijske proizvodnje je bila julija glede na predhodni mesec negativna (-1,7 %, naša ocena: -1,0 %), medletno (glede na julij 2020) pa je bila višja za 8,9 %. Pričakovano se je rast upočasnila (v 1. polovici leta je bila medletno višja za 15 %) na 13 % v prvih sedmih mesecih leta 2021. V rudarstvu je bila industrijska proizvodnja v omenjenem obdobju medletno nižja za 2,6 %, v energetiki za 1,5 %, v predelovalnih dejavnostih pa je bila višja za okoli 15 %.

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 28. avgusta do 3. septembra 2021

Izpod peresa glavnega ekonomista GZS, od 28. avgusta do 3. septembra 2021

Globalni proizvodni indeks JP Morgan Global Manufacturing je pokazal, da je bilo razpoloženje v svetovni industriji konec avgusta (54,1) nekoliko nižje kot julija (55,4), kar je bila posledica nižje rasti proizvodnje in novih naročil ter dviga stroškov vhodnih surovin in polizdelkov. Rast se je upočasnila tako v ZDA kot v območju evra, medtem ko so bili indeksi v azijskih državah v povprečju celo pod 50, kar nakazuje na krčenje proizvodnje v zadevnem mesecu. To je povezano s širjenjem primerov okužb s COVID-19 v številnih azijskih gospodarstvih.

Weekly Economic Highlights: Improving exports of goods in final months of 2020 but a reduction of 10% on a yearly level likely

Weekly Economic Highlights: Improving exports of goods in final months of 2020 but a reduction of 10% on a yearly level likely

November data on exports (1 week ahead of Eurostat release) from Slovenian Statistical Office shows that trends have improved in final months, what was expected based on improving sentiment in manufacturing as well as anecdotal data from main companies. Y-o-y change (Nov. 20/Nov. 19) was positive (+0.9%; +EUR 30 m), for both group of markets (exports to EU: +EUR 20 m and exports to non-EU: +EUR 10 m).