In January, industrial production remained almost unchanged to December (seasonally adjusted) and was higher only by 0.1%. Quite surprising, growth was highest in electricity, gas and steam supply (+18%). It decreased by 0.9% in manufacturing (a modest growth of 0.5% was expected according to our view) and in mining and quarrying by 0.6%. Most of the industrial production in Slovenia is represented by manufacturing (90 %), where revenues nevertheless increased by 3.1% (despite drop in industrial production). The decline in production in manufacturing was largely influenced by the decline in production in durable consumer goods (-14.7%), where we estimate that it due to falling production of pharmaceuticals. In production of investment goods (machinery and equipment, semi-finished products), production grew by 0.9% but revenues fell by 5.3%. This was also due to slightly higher inventory growth (+3%).

BDP v Sloveniji se je v zadnjem četrtletju leta 2021 povečal za 5,4 % (desezonirano, glede na predhodno četrtletje), kar je bilo 10-krat več kot v EU-27 (0,4 %) ali v območju evra (0,3 %). Glede na 4. četrtletje 2020 je bil BDP v Sloveniji večji za desetino, kar je bila visoka rast (le v 2. četrtletju je bila višja, pri 16,1 %). V celotnem letu 2021 je bila rast 8,1-odstotna, kar je bilo več od zadnjega konsenza (6,7 %). Potrošnja gospodinjstev je porasla za 11,6 %, države za 3,9 % in bruto investicij v osnovna sredstva za 12,3 % (tudi zaloge so pozitivno prispevale k rasti, v višini 0,8 odstotne točke). Izvoz blaga in storitev je bil realno višji za 13,2 %, uvoz pa za 17,4 % (odražal je tako večji uvoz polproizvodov za predelovalno dejavnosti, ki 80 % le-te izvozi, kot večjo potrošnjo gospodinjstev, države in investicij). K celotni rasti BDP je tako predvsem prispevala višja potrošnja gospodinjstev (70 % rasti). Ta je bila realno višja za 4,3 % glede na leto 2019.

The economic climate in Slovenia improved as expected in February 2022, mainly due to the predominant removal of restrictions that negatively affected some service activities (tourism, travel, sports, culture). It was 1.2 percentage points higher on a monthly basis (we expected an increase of 0.3 percentage points) and 10.1 percentage points higher on an annual basis. The monthly change in the sentiment indicator was positively influenced by higher values of consumer confidence indicators (by 0.6 percentage points), in services (by 0.5 percentage points) and in manufacturing (by 0.2 percentage points). The impact of confidence indicators in retail trade and construction was negative, but the impact was small (0.1 percentage point each).

Gospodarska klima v Sloveniji se je v februarju 2022 pričakovano izboljšala, predvsem zaradi pretežnega umika omejitev s storitvenih dejavnostih. Na mesečni ravni je bila višja za 1,2 odstotne točke (pričakovali smo dvig za 0,3 točke) in na letni ravni za 10,1 odstotne točke. Pozitivno so na mesečno spremembo vrednosti kazalnika gospodarske klime vplivale višje vrednosti kazalnikov zaupanja med potrošniki (za 0,6 odstotne točke), v storitvenih dejavnostih (za 0,5 odstotne točke) in v predelovalnih dejavnostih (za 0,2 odstotne točke). Vpliv kazalnikov zaupanja v trgovini na drobno in v gradbeništvu je bil negativen, vendar je bil vpliv majhen (vsak za 0,1 odstotne točke).

Consumer confidence indicator was 3 percentage points higher on a monthly basis in February 2022, which was quite in line with our expectations (growth of 2 points). The rise in the confidence indicator was due to more optimistic consumer expectations regarding the economic situation in the country (by 8 percentage points) and the financial situation in households (by 7 percentage points). In our opinion, this is due to expectations of the withdrawal of the remaining containment measures as well as expectations of continuing wage growth.

Vrednost kazalnika zaupanja potrošnikov je bila v februarju 2022 na mesečni ravni za 3 odstotne točke višja, kar je bilo precej skladno z našimi pričakovanji (rast v višini 2 točk). Dvig vrednosti kazalnika zaupanja na mesečni ravni so povzročila bolj optimistična pričakovanja potrošnikov glede gospodarskega stanja v državi (za 8 odstotnih točk) in finančnega stanja v gospodinjstvih (za 7 odstotnih točk). To je po naši oceni posledica pričakovanj o umiku preostalih zajezitvenih ukrepov kot tudi pričakovanj o rasti plač.

Vabimo vas, da izkoristite brezplačni dostop do vsebin Analitike GZS (do 15. 2. 2022). Vsebujejo gradiva o tekočih makroekonomskih trendih in napovedih ekonomskega okolja za Slovenijo in tujino.

The total value of industrial production was higher for the fifth month in a row. In December 2021 it was higher by 1.1% compared to November. It was higher in manufacturing and mining (by 1.1% and 16.0%, respectively) and lower in electricity, gas and steam supply sector, mainly due to poorer hydrology (by 2.4%). Growth surprised us, especially after the already strong growth in November (+ 2.8% compared to October, based on seasonally adjusted data) and compared to the usual situation in this month in the last few years. We expected a moderate, 0.3% drop. Compared to the level of industrial production in December 2020, it was higher by 11.9% and compared to December 2019 by 10.3%. Despite the growth of production in manufacturing (+1.1% compared to November), turnover in December decreased by 0.5%, which is related to the higher growth in stocks of finished products.